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The oversimplified scoring system may compromise its utility as a predictive model for the development of hypertension

Hypertension Research volume 45, pages 1087–1088 (2022)Cite this article

We read with great interest the article by Kawasoe et al. that was recently published in Hypertension Research. In the present study, the authors reported a simple scoring system for predicting the future development of hypertension based on an analysis of Japanese health checkup data including more than 40,000 participants [1]. We appreciate such an attempt as a meaningful use of big data. On the other hand, it seems that the large-scale data were not fully analyzed, and the clinical utility of the data was compromised by the oversimplified scoring system.

In the proposed method, based on the results of multivariable logistic regression analysis, a subject with high baseline blood pressure (BP) was given four points, the highest score among the risk factors. We believe that even without collecting data from 40,000 subjects, it is obvious that people with high BP are more likely to develop hypertension. Since BP increases with age [2], including BP itself as a variable in a model to predict future BP would be an inherently complex modeling challenge.

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References

  1. Kawasoe M, Kawasoe S, Kubozono T, Ojima S, Kawabata T, Ikeda Y, et al. Development of a risk prediction score for hypertension incidence using Japanese health checkup data. Hypertens Res. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41440-021-00831-x

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Cardiology, Ehime Prefectural Central Hospital, Matsuyama, Japan

    Yuta Tanaka, Akinori Higaki, Takuro Kazatani & Yoshitaka Kawada

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  1. Yuta Tanaka
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  2. Akinori Higaki
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  3. Takuro Kazatani
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  4. Yoshitaka Kawada
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Correspondence to Akinori Higaki.

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Tanaka, Y., Higaki, A., Kazatani, T. et al. The oversimplified scoring system may compromise its utility as a predictive model for the development of hypertension. Hypertens Res 45, 1087–1088 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41440-022-00880-w

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