A family carry bottles of water in the Bezuidenhoudtville informal settlement in Adelaide, South Africa, in November 2019, during a long drought affecting the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Credit: Guillem Sartorio/AFP via Getty Images.
Climate change not only affects economic growth of entire countries, but also increases inequality within each country, according to a study by researchers at Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) in Lecce1.
The study is among the first to explore the social and economic effects of climate change at three distinct levels: global, regional, and household. “Combining household surveys and high-resolution climatic data, and using economic data collected over a long time, we have explored the localised effects of climate and weather shocks on inequality, poverty, and welfare,” says Shouro Dasgupta, an environmental economist at CMCC and first author of the study.
The researchers analysed data from various sources to build a model of how changes in the annual mean temperature can affect the economy of a country or a region, depending on its geography, economic activity and social composition. Then they focussed on South Africa as a case study, simulating the future effects of different climate scenarios. They found that moderate warming scenarios in this country are projected to increase the Gini coefficient (a widely used measure of inequality) by 3 to 6 points. The heightened inequality particularly impacts agricultural households.
“In the South African context, we found a U-shaped relationship between temperature and inequality, with the lowest inequality occurring at moderate temperatures,” explains Dasgupta. “However, beyond a critical threshold annual mean temperature between 15 and 17°C, the inequality gap among income groups widens precipitously, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities in rural areas”.
Dasgupta says that the study cautions against climate change policies that overlook inequality in their design and may have potential unintended consequences on disadvantaged groups. “For instance, fuel taxes, when not tailored to income disparities, can disproportionately impact low-income earners,” he says.
