Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • News & Views
  • Published:

Climate change

The carbon equation

Nature volume 393, pages 208–209 (1998)Cite this article

Following the signing of the Climate Convention in Rio in 1992, and the subsequent conference in Kyoto late last year, there is a pressing need to find out more about the relationship between anthropogenic emissions of the main greenhouse gas, CO2, and the resulting atmospheric concentrations. In its reports1,2 dealing with 1994 and 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided estimates for a wide variety of scenarios, to give policymakers some information on anthropogenic emissions consistent with the aim of stabilizing atmospheric CO2at a range of levels (from 350 to 1,000 parts per million by volume).

Cao and Woodward4 suggest that the terrestrial biosphere could act as a significant sink for carbon over the next century because of a large stimulation of photosynthesis by increased CO2; that sink would, however, be reduced by increased respiratory losses of carbon with warming. The authors present the important result that the terrestrial sink must become saturated — both because photosynthesis follows a saturating function with respect to CO2, and because, as the rate of increase in photosynthesis slows, plant and microbial respiration must catch up, eventually reducing incremental carbon storage to zero. Although Cao and Woodward's model neglects land-use change and deforestation1,2, and nitrogen deposition5, it demonstrates the maturation of models of plant physiological processes at large scales.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Present-day fluxes of anthropogenic CO2compared with estimated fluxes for the year 2070 (or 2065 in the case of Sarmiento et al.3).

References

  1. Schimel, D. S. et al. in Climate Change 1994 (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) 35-72 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1995).

  2. Schimel, D. S. et al. in Climate Change 1995 (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) 65-131 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1996).

  3. Sarmiento, J. L., Hughes, T. M. C., Stouffer, R. J. & Manabe, S. Nature 393, 245–249 (1998).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Cao, M. & Woodward, F. I. Nature 393, 249–252 (1998).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Holland, E. A.et al. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 15849–15866 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Bolin, B. & Cook, R. B. (eds) The Major Biogeochemical Cycles and Their Interactions (Wiley, New York, 1983).

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Sophienstrasse 10, 07743, Jena, Germany

    David S. Schimel

  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, 80307-3000, Colorado, USA

    David S. Schimel

Authors
  1. David S. Schimel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Schimel, D. The carbon equation. Nature 393, 208–209 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1038/30344

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/30344

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing