Volume 5 Issue 2, February 2015

Choosing and implementing adaptation measures to protect coastal populations and infrastructure from sea-level rise and storm surges is no easy matter.

Knowledge could represent both a powerful determinant and indicator of adaptive capacity.

Investors are increasingly aware of climate risk to their investments, but can science drive a broader shift to green investments? Green bonds are an example of a financial market that could be better informed by climate science.

Internal climate variability can mask or enhance human-induced sea-ice loss on timescales ranging from years to decades. It must be properly accounted for when considering observations, understanding projections and evaluating models.

The Nordic Seas are highly sensitive to environmental change and have been extensively monitored and studied across a broad range of marine disciplines. For these reasons, the Nordic seas may serve as a pilot area for integrated policy development in response to ongoing climate change.

Often viewed as the fossil-fuel industry's spotless neighbour, renewable energy's association with a 'dirty' activity is intensifying. Renewable energy companies need to disclose more about their heavy reliance on mining.

Calls to curtail exploitation of coal reserves are rife, but the industry has other ideas — Sonja van Renssen explores the issues.

Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

How climate change will impact the natural phenomenon La Niña, the counterpart of El Niño, has been unclear. In spite of uncertainty, now a study shows a large model consensus for an increasing frequency of extreme La Niña events.

Evolutionary adaptation will help some animals cope with future climate change, but for juvenile salmon there may be limits to how far the thermal tolerance of cardiac function can adapt.

As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise, some regions are expected to warm more than others. Now research suggests that whether warming will intensify or slow down over time also depends on location.

Asia's mega-deltas are densely populated and face multiple stressors including upstream development and sea-level rise. Adapting to these challenges requires difficult choices between hard and soft responses set within a strongly political context.

Projections and predictions of future climate today generally rely on ensembles of climate model simulations. This Perspective advocates a radically different approach, using numerical weather predictions and knowledge of past weather events.

Lack of progress in global climate change negotiations has revamped interest in polycentric approaches – sub-global mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is still unclear why these mechanisms might achieve better outcomes than global negotiations. This Perspective outlines themain advantages of polycentric approaches over a global one by reviewing significant theoretical, empirical, and experimental evidence.

Experts using integrated assessment models to analyse the effects of climate change policy, have recently engaged in model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) to generate conclusions robust to different models' specifications. This Review synthesises results from the most comprehensive MIP that focuses on the different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target.

Integrated assessment models estimate the impact of climate change on current economic output, but not on its rate of growth. This study modifies a standard integrated assessment model to allow climate change to directly affect gross GDP growth rates. Results show that climate change significantly slows down GDP growth in poor regions but not in rich countries, with implications for the level of near-term mitigation.

Extreme La Niña events occur when cold sea surface temperatures across the central Pacific Ocean create a strong temperature gradient to the Maritime continent in the west. This work projects an increase in frequency of La Niña events due to faster land warming relative to the ocean, and a greater chance of them occurring following extreme El Niño events.

Knowledge of how climate change will affect temperatures on a regional scale is needed for effective planning and preparedness. This study uses five climate models to investigate regional warming. It shows that warming is nonlinear for doublings of atmospheric CO₂ and that nonlinearity increases with higher CO₂ concentrations.

This study—based on systematic testing of 30 different wheat crop models against field experiments—shows that many wheat models simulate yields well, but with reduced accuracy at higher temperatures. Extrapolation of the model ensemble response indicates that global wheat production will fall by 6% for each 1 °C increase in temperature.

Populations may exhibit different sensitivity to climate change depending on where they occur in their climatic range. Experimental results now show that tree species growing nearest to their warm range limit exhibit reduced net photosynthesis and growth in response to warming, whereas those near their cold range limit show improved functioning.

Controlled embankment breaches could reduce flood risk for the Ganges–Brahmaputra tidal delta plain as sea level rises.

Barrier islands represent about 10% of the world’s coastline and perform many services including coastal protection. A study now shows that islands exhibit a bistable response to environmental change. Improved understanding of these mechanisms can help to predict future transitions in barrier island state.

The viability of Pacific salmon populations could be compromised by the effects of climate change given their limited ability to adapt to increased temperatures.

The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is facing rising sea levels that are expected to exacerbate ongoing problems of saline intrusion into agricultural land. An assessment of hydrology, agriculture and human behaviour identifies the combination of adaptation strategies that are likely to yield the most effective results for those living in the Mekong Delta.