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Volume 12 Issue 3, March 2022

Extremes increase disease risks

Meerkats are a social mammal highly adapted to climate extremes, but their desert habitat in the Kalahari has been marked by the stark increases in temperature extremes under climate change that have been affecting drylands globally. Writing in this issue, Paniw and co-authors show that increases in extreme temperatures may destabilize populations of meerkats by increasing fatal tuberculosis outbreaks, thereby accelerating the extinction of large, established meerkat groups.

See Paniw et al.

Image: Arpat Ozgul, University of Zurich. Cover Design: Valentina Monaco

Editorial

  • Our individual carbon footprints depend on behaviour, wealth and lifestyle. Understanding the demographics of emissions is needed for climate justice, and could help policymakers develop effective strategies for emissions reductions.

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Comment

  • Climate change poses a threat to heritage globally. Decolonial approaches to climate change–heritage research and practice can begin to address systemic inequities, recognize the breadth of heritage and strengthen adaptation action globally.

    • Nicholas P. Simpson
    • Joanne Clarke
    • Christopher H. Trisos
    Comment
  • Communities want to determine their own climate change adaptation strategies, and scientists and decision-makers should listen to them — both the equity and efficacy of climate change adaptation depend on it. We outline key lessons researchers and development actors can take to support communities and learn from them.

    • Anne C. Pisor
    • Xavier Basurto
    • James Holland Jones
    Comment
  • Climate hazards can compound existing stresses on the revenues and expenditures of local governments, revealing potential risks to fiscal stability. Incorporating these risks into local budgeting and strategic planning would encourage a more complete accounting of the benefits of climate adaptation and risk reduction efforts.

    • Elisabeth A. Gilmore
    • Carolyn Kousky
    • Travis St.Clair
    Comment
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Books & Arts

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Research Highlights

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News & Views

  • Developed countries are about to experience unprecedented demographic changes. The increasing population, wealth and carbon-intensive lifestyles of senior citizens raise concerns that should be addressed.

    • Juudit Ottelin
    News & Views
  • The glaciers in the Arctic are affected greatly by the amplified warming of this region. Work now documents a link between variations in the annual mass balance of Arctic glaciers and changes in tropospheric circulation patterns.

    • Louise Sandberg Sørensen
    News & Views
  • Increasing Arctic temperatures accelerate coastal erosion, threatening coastal communities and infrastructure, and adding carbon to the atmosphere. Research now predicts that Arctic coastal erosion on the pan-Arctic scale will exceed its historical range of variability and increase two to three times by the end of the century.

    • Christina Schädel
    News & Views
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Research Briefings

  • A meta-analytic approach based on 89 datasets across 33 countries was used to assess the relative strength of 15 determinants of public opinion about climate change taxes and laws. The results showed that fairness was the most important determinant of public opinion, whereas knowledge about climate change, self-enhancement values and demographic factors showed weak effects.

    Research Briefing
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Brief Communications

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Articles

  • A large proportion of the population in developed countries will be of senior age in the years ahead. The carbon emissions of this group comprised an increasing share of the total emissions in developed countries in the past decade, with high expenditure on carbon-intensive products, and this trend will continue in the future.

    • Heran Zheng
    • Yin Long
    • Dabo Guan
    Article
  • Glacial mass is dependent on the balance between melt and snow accumulation, which is impacted by rising Arctic temperatures. Glacier mass balances in Svalbard and northern Canada were asynchronous since the 1990s, related to changes in patterns of atmospheric heat advection.

    • Ingo Sasgen
    • Annette Salles
    • Christoph Beck
    Article Open Access
  • Many heritage sites are threatened by rising sea levels under climate change as they lie within the coastal zone. A continental assessment of exposure of 284 African heritage sites shows that 20% of sites are currently at risk, which more than triples under moderate and high emission scenarios.

    • Michalis I. Vousdoukas
    • Joanne Clarke
    • Nicholas P. Simpson
    Article Open Access
  • Coastal erosion in the Arctic is caused by permafrost thaw and wave abrasion enhanced by sea ice melt, both of which will increase under climate change. Projections of erosion rate across the Arctic indicate that mean erosion rates will rise beyond historical precedent over the twenty-first century.

    • David Marcolino Nielsen
    • Patrick Pieper
    • Mikhail Dobrynin
    Article Open Access
  • The Amazon rainforest is increasingly under pressure from climate change and deforestation. The resilience of three-quarters of the forest, particularly in drier areas or close to human activity, has been decreasing since the 2000s, indicating that the system may be approaching a tipping point.

    • Chris A. Boulton
    • Timothy M. Lenton
    • Niklas Boers
    Article Open Access
  • Tropical forest restoration has the potential to remove large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere, but the climate mitigation potential could be threatened by climate change impacts. This study shows that carbon sequestered in restored forests is predominantly safe under a range of future scenarios.

    • Alexander Koch
    • Jed O. Kaplan
    Article Open Access
  • Using 22 years of demographic data from wild meekats in the Kalahari, the authors project group persistence in the context of weather extremes and outbreaks of end-stage tuberculosis. They find that synergistic climate–disease effects on key demographic rates may exacerbate future disease impacts.

    • Maria Paniw
    • Chris Duncan
    • Tim Clutton-Brock
    Article
  • Wheat genotypes with improved seedling emergence can be sown deeper, facilitating seedling survival under climate change. Crop modelling of these novel genotypes predicts yield increases of up to 20% relative to current genotypes in Australia, with potential for substantial gains in other regions globally.

    • Zhigan Zhao
    • Enli Wang
    • Greg J. Rebetzke
    Article
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