Research articles

The desire to justify carbon-emitting behaviours could influence people’s climate change beliefs due to motivated cognition. Based on a pre-registered survey experiment in the United States, the study, however, finds no evidence supporting the claim in explaining climate denial and environmentally harmful behaviour.

The authors estimate the global vulnerability of wheat crops to wheat blast under current and future climates. They show that warmer, more humid climates can increase wheat blast infection, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, subsequently reducing global wheat production.

How the climate system reacts to stabilized or decreasing CO₂ concentrations is not yet well understood. Here, the authors show that deep ocean warming and its slower heat release lead to unique patterns of ocean surface warming and precipitation.

Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are an important component of the equatorial Pacific climate. Here the authors show that TIW activity has intensified in the central equatorial Pacific at ∼12 ± 6% per decade over the recent three decades.

The authors show shifts in predatory spider web mesh size under experimental warming in an alpine meadow. Web mesh size decreased for a large spider species, but increased for a small species, with changes linked to altered prey size spectra following soil moisture and plant community shifts.

The authors investigate the impacts of excluding ecosystem data from Russian stations in the Arctic. While the current network of Arctic stations is already biased, the exclusion of Russian stations lowers representativeness and creates further biases that can rival end-of-century climate change shifts.

Ocean eddies impact circulation, heat and gas fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. Modelling how warming will alter their occurrence in the Arctic shows that sea ice decline and increased baroclinic instability drive an increase in eddy kinetic energy.

Oxygen loss has been observed in the world’s oceans, due mainly to warming temperatures that reduce oxygen solubility and increase stratification. This study shows climate-induced salinity changes also impact oxygen patterns with effects either accelerating or counteracting warming-driven changes.

The increase in atmospheric methane has been accelerating since 2007, and identifying drivers is critical for climate mitigation. In this study, the authors show that the expansion of rice cultivation in Africa accounts for 7% of rising emissions.

The authors quantify changes in carbon flow to Arctic tundra and boreal forest consumers under warming. Small-mammal specimens separated by 30 years and wolf spiders from short-term warming experiments show similar patterns of change, switching from plant-based to fungal-based food webs.

Hydrofluorocarbons are a class of important greenhouse gases, and quantitative estimates of their social cost are still lacking. This research develops a set of direct estimates of their economic costs and shows their rapid phase-down could lead to large climate benefits.

Warming temperatures associated with climate change are expected to impact soil carbon stocks, yet the effect of more frequent and intense extreme climate events on soil carbon is yet unclear. This study shows that most extremes enhance soil carbon loss globally, with variation across ecosystems.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a key feature of tropical weather on a multi-weekly timescale. Here, the authors show that the MJO becomes more predictable with climate change, potentially allowing better subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.

The authors use experimental data from 332 sites across all major global biomes to evaluate the drivers of soil microbial respiration response to warming. They demonstrate a key role of the soil microbiome, highlighting the need to account for this in assessments of soil respiration under change.

It has been suggested that Antarctic ice sheets can become unstable and undergo irreversible retreat, but so far observational evidence for this mechanism is missing. Here, the authors show evidence that such an irreversible retreat occurred at Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica in the 1970s.

Climate change is expected to strengthen atmospheric jet streams. Here the authors show that the fastest upper-level jet stream winds accelerate about 2.5 times faster under climate change than average winds, which could influence aviation and severe weather events.

Negative emissions technologies at scale are seen as essential for the overall decarbonization effort to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. However, private ownership of these technologies could largely increase regional or international inequality by financing them through carbon markets.

The authors incorporate terrestrial biosphere models with ecological optimality theory, remote sensing and global carbon budget estimates to constrain the historical effects of CO₂ on photosynthesis. They show that CO₂ fertilization likely increased global photosynthesis by 13.5% between 1981 and 2020.