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Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

Nature Climate Change volume 5, pages 823–829 (2015)Cite this article

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Abstract

Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

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Figure 1: Tree cover increase with CO2 increase over the past century near Queenstown, Eastern Cape, South Africa.

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Acknowledgements

Funding via the South African National Research Foundation 'Global Change Grand Challenge: Solutions for Sustainability' Grant 92463 (G.F.M.) and the NRF/CSIR Applied Center for Climate and Earth System Studies (W.J.B.) made this work possible.

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  1. Department of Botany and Zoology, Global Change and Biodiversity Group, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa

    Guy F. Midgley

  2. South African Environmental Observation Network, National Research Foundation, Private Bag X7, Claremont, 7735, South Africa

    William J. Bond

  3. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, 7701, South Africa

    William J. Bond

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Midgley, G., Bond, W. Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change. Nature Clim Change 5, 823–829 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2753

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