Letters in 2016

This study presents a new use of a widely used metric known as the global warming potential (GWP) to compare the impact of cumulative climate pollutants such as CO₂ versus short-lived climate pollutants, such as methane and black carbon.

This study suggests that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase influences how much sea-ice loss contributes to Arctic amplification, with warming being larger during the negative phase with greater sea-ice loss.

This study shows that 80% of extracted groundwater ends up in the ocean and contributed 0.27 mm per year to sea-level rise in 2000. These numbers indicate that previous studies overestimated groundwater contributions over the past century.

Wildfire damage is expected to increase under climate warming. Research now suggests that increased human exposure to wildfires will be driven primarily by population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in fire area.

Satellite records combined with global ecosystem models show a persistent and widespread greening over 25–50% of the global vegetated area; less than 4% of the globe is browning. CO₂ fertilization explains 70% of the observed greening trend.

Previous research suggests knowledge about climate change has only a limited impact on concern about the issue. A multinational survey shows this negative result largely depends on how knowledge is defined.

The Pacific trade winds have been strengthening over the past two decades, but until now the cause of this has not been known. Now research shows that sulfate aerosols caused the western North Pacific Ocean to warm, leading to the trade-wind intensification.

Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce plant water use. Research now reveals regional disparities in this effect on crops, with potential implications for food production and water consumption.

Analysis of anthropogenic and natural contributions to twentieth-century sea-level rise shows natural contributions dominated in the early years. After 1970, anthropogenic forcing becomes the dominant contributor to sea-level rise.

Changes in the terrestrial water balance are expected in many regions, but small islands remain difficult to assess. Research now reveals a tendency towards increased aridity in over 73% of island groups (home to around 16 million people) by mid-century.

The application of a new metric of seasonal onset over Europe to existing observational data sets indicates that the start of summer has advanced significantly over recent decades, a trend expected to continue under global warming.

An analysis of climate change mitigation policies in an idealized integrated assessment framework highlights the importance of economic growth, and investment in technologies such as large-scale carbon dioxide removal, to limit peak warming.

Modelling shows that twenty-first-century climate change could significantly affect the market value of global financial assets, and suggests that limiting warming to no more than 2 °C would make financial sense to many investors.

An analysis of preliminary official statistics shows that, rather than falling as claimed, coal-derived energy consumption in China stayed flat in 2014, while fossil CO₂ emissions probably increased slightly, with a decrease expected for 2015.

Climate change has altered the climatic drivers of French wine grape harvests, with potential implications for management and wine quality. High summer temperatures that hasten fruit maturation are increasingly occurring without drought conditions.

A model that evaluates the likelihood of coastal inundation (flooding) and dynamical response (adaptation) as sea levels rise shows that, for the northeastern US, about 70% of the coast has some capacity to respond dynamically and alter inundation risk.

The contribution of urbanization to warming in China has been difficult to quantify owing to the proximity of rural stations to urban areas. A novel detection and attribution analysis separates the contribution of all external forcings, and shows that urbanization accounts for about one-third (0.5 °C) of the total warming signal in China (1.4 °C).

Ongoing population growth could greatly exacerbate the human impact of sea-level rise in coastal areas of the continental US this century, with the potential to induce mass population movements unless protective measures are taken.

Climate change may necessitate transformative adaptation of agricultural systems. Research now indicates when and where the cultivation of key crops in sub-Saharan African will become unviable.

New surveys show strategies to garner public support based on the traditional justification of reducing the risks of climate change remain the most effective. This contrasts with recent studies that suggest emphasizing co-benefits is more fruitful.