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Connected and compound events

Climate events can compound and interact with societal forces in ways that modify ultimate risks and impacts, sometimes for the worse. We highlight recent work in this research space below.

Latest Research

  • Article |

    The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a band of convection that travels eastward through the tropics and impacts mid-latitude weather via teleconnections. Under climate warming, these teleconnections are predicted to extend eastward in the Pacific–North America region, amplifying MJO impacts there.

    • Wenyu Zhou
    • , Da Yang
    • , Shang-Ping Xie
    •  & Jing Ma
  • Article |

    Methane emissions are determined by the balance of microbial methane production relative to consumption. Warming drives larger increases in methane production than consumption in experimental ponds, suggesting that natural ecosystems may represent a positive feedback under climate change.

    • Yizhu Zhu
    • , Kevin J. Purdy
    • , Özge Eyice
    • , Lidong Shen
    • , Sarah F. Harpenslager
    • , Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
    • , Alex J. Dumbrell
    •  & Mark Trimmer
  • Article |

    Surface air temperatures at the South Pole warmed at over three times the global rate in recent decades. Research shows this trend was driven remotely by the tropics and locally by a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, increasing the influx of warm moist air atop anthropogenic warming.

    • Kyle R. Clem
    • , Ryan L. Fogt
    • , John Turner
    • , Benjamin R. Lintner
    • , Gareth J. Marshall
    • , James R. Miller
    •  & James A. Renwick
  • Article |

    Community-based adaptation, in principle, leverages existing local knowledge, capabilities and priorities, but it is unclear what factors drive its success or lack thereof. Here the authors evaluate 32 community-based adaptation initiatives in the Pacific Islands and identify key optimization points for future initiatives.

    • Karen E. McNamara
    • , Rachel Clissold
    • , Ross Westoby
    • , Annah E. Piggott-McKellar
    • , Roselyn Kumar
    • , Tahlia Clarke
    • , Frances Namoumou
    • , Francis Areki
    • , Eugene Joseph
    • , Olivia Warrick
    •  & Patrick D. Nunn
  • Article |

    The North Atlantic ocean warming hole has been linked to reduced tropical heat import. Model simulations show an anthropogenically forced increased heat export poleward from the region, by overturning and gyre circulation, and shortwave cloud feedback control the warming hole formation and growth.

    • Paul Keil
    • , Thorsten Mauritsen
    • , Johann Jungclaus
    • , Christopher Hedemann
    • , Dirk Olonscheck
    •  & Rohit Ghosh
  • Perspective |

    Reference scenarios are used to evaluate different mitigation scenarios, allowing understanding of their relative strengths and weaknesses. This Perspective considers the appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis across different policy contexts.

    • Neil Grant
    • , Adam Hawkes
    • , Tamaryn Napp
    •  & Ajay Gambhir

News & Comment

  • Editorial |

    Research addressing compound and connected events, and their integrated risk to the natural and built world, is gaining momentum. Paradigms are now evolving to classify and analyse the processes forming such links — whether physical or societal, direct or indirect — and the role of climate change in their ultimate impacts.

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