Research articles

The diffusion of economic shocks from earthquakes is simulated at the firm level in Japan, using an agent-based model and the supply chains of nearly one million firms. Indirect losses to production are significantly larger and more persistent than direct ones.

Floating treatment wetlands can improve wastewater treatment plant performance. In this Analysis, the authors conducted a three-year study of full-scale floating treatment wetlands in stabilization ponds and showed substantially improved water quality and reduced heavy metal concentrations.

The number of environmental activists and defenders killed per week around the world over the past 15 years has doubled. Countries with the most corruption and weakest rule of law have the highest correlation with deaths but environmental rights face threats even in industrialized countries.

Radiative cooling can reduce air-conditioning requirements. In this study, the authors demonstrated an inexpensive thermal emitter that provided continuous daytime cooling up to 9 °C outdoors on a clear, sunny New York day.

The Amazon exemplifies conflicts between extractive resource use and conservation goals. This study finds lead in livers of Amazonian game comparable to levels in industrialized nations and that lead ammunition and oil-related pollution are key sources.

A new estimation of forest cover and loss finds more area but also double the loss rates in recent years, relative to previous estimates. Deforestation increased after a low peak in 2013.

Chinese commitments under the Paris Agreement are premised on a peak in CO₂ emissions by 2030. Using the Kuznets curve and emissions and gross domestic product data from 50 cities in the country, this Analysis predicts that emissions in China could peak between 2021 and 2025, well ahead of the Paris target.

Urban expansion displaces agricultural land elsewhere, indirectly causing loss of natural land cover. A global study finds that this impact is more substantial than previously thought.

Dietary changes to reduce environmental impacts depend on behavioural factors. By linking a behavioural diet shift model to an integrated assessment model, this study shows the role of social norms and self-efficacy as main drivers of widespread dietary changes.

Groundwater wells in the United States are under more stress than ever before due to drought conditions and rising demand, but the extensive nature of deeper drilling has been unreported. This analysis compiles nearly 12 million groundwater wells across the United States to determine water vulnerability and sustainability.

The growing prevalence of drought conditions across the world means that mitigation and adaptation will require accounting for feedback loops between water availability and interventions. The Willamette River Valley in Oregon serves as a case study for how to use coupled human–natural systems to mitigate drought.

Climate change will affect Himalayan water resources. This study quantifies the importance of snow and glacier melt for agriculture on the Indo-Gangetic plain, finding that 129 million farmers depend on it, especially for rice and cotton, and that meltwater supports crops feeding 38 million people.

A comprehensive analysis of indigenous and local knowledge on plant uses in New Guinea shows important documentation gaps that limit biodiversity assessments. Also, many services are rare, so less likely to be documented.

Predators, including prawns, can suppress schistosomiasis by eating snail hosts. This modelling study finds that two prawn species in sub-Saharan Africa can reduce snail hosts and help control schistosomiasis at densities that maximize profits of associated aquaculture—a potential win–win.

Wild plants anchor ecosystems and local economies. The iconic resin frankincense comes from Boswellia trees. This study documents the population collapse of B. papyrifera, the main frankincense source, throughout its range, suggesting conservation and restoration is vital.

To understand transitions to more sustainable diets, an analysis of over 240,000 online recipes, their user ratings and interviews finds an increase in vegan and vegetarian recipes, and in users switching to and keeping these diets.

Distinguishing types of farm workers, an analysis of Fairtrade certification in the cocoa sector of Cote d’Ivoire finds that the standard improves the livelihoods of cooperative workers but makes little difference for wage labourers working on small farms.

Road length has almost doubled in 2003–2018 within the Congo Basin forests. Deforestation within 1 km of roads has increased greatly. Almost half of the roads within logging concessions were subsequently abandoned, but most roads outside concessions endured.

Mountain water resources are increasingly threatened. This study finds that a 1,400-year-old system for diverting headwater streams onto Andean slopes enhances the later water yield in downslope springs and estimates that upscaling this for Lima, Peru, could increase dry-season flows by 7.5%.

Implementation of a groundwater conservation policy in northwest India governing rice irrigation is linked to an increase in fires to clear agricultural residue, which itself worsens air quality in urban areas.