COVID-19 and human behaviour

The authors use data-informed computational modelling and show that prioritizing vaccination efforts for the most disadvantaged communities can simultaneously improve equity and prevent the spread of disease.

The Blursday database contains repeated measures of subjective time and related processes collected during the COVID-19 pandemic. The more isolated individuals felt, the slower time seemed to pass.

Proof-of-vaccination mandates for non-essential venues and activities were rapidly followed by >60% increases in weekly first-dose COVID-19 vaccinations in Canada, France, Italy and Germany, leading to cumulative gains in vaccination rates.

Using a differences-in-differences approach, Lichand et al. estimate the effects of remote learning in São Paulo, Brazil, during the pandemic. Their findings suggest that middle- and high-school students learned only 27.5% of the in-person equivalent and that dropout risk increased by 365%.

This Resource describes the data from a survey on COVID-19 related behaviours, beliefs and norms. From July 2020 to March 2021, the authors fielded a global survey on people’s baseline beliefs, behaviours and norms related to COVID-19 in 67 countries, yielding over 2 million responses.

Studying news supply and demand amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, Gravino and coauthors show that news production by unreliable sources is more sensitive to the public interest than reliable news.

Using tweets in over 100 countries, Wang et al. examine evidence of global sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic. They find that COVID-19 outbreaks caused a decline in sentiment worldwide, and the effects of lockdowns differed across countries.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, medical equipment shortages reached critical levels. Crabtree, Holbein and Monson use conjoint experiments and find that during this time, individual biases impacted health-care providers’ allocation of life-saving care.

Lobinska et al. explore the evolutionary dynamics of COVID-19. Their results suggest that even with fast vaccination, social distancing (or contact reduction) must be maintained to minimize the risk of selecting for vaccine-resistant variants.

Experiments in the United States, Great Britain and Canada show that fact-checks can reduce belief in misperceptions about COVID-19, especially among the groups who are most vulnerable to these claims. However, these effects do not persist over time.

Using data-driven mathematical modelling that combines viral evolution with epidemiological dynamics, Ye et al. show that COVID-19 vaccine inequity leads to the emergence of new variants and new waves of the pandemic, while equitable allocation of vaccine doses reduces case counts and fatalities in all countries.

Adolescents in Norway reported more depressive symptoms and less optimism during the COVID-19 pandemic, while alcohol and cannabis use decreased. Girls, younger individuals and those from low socio-economic backgrounds showed more adverse changes.

In a randomized controlled trial, Schleider et al. show that single-session online interventions are able to reduce depression symptoms up to three months later in adolescents.

Do restrictive measures to control the spread of COVID-19 also reduce non-COVID-19-related mortality? Here, the authors show that, in China, non-COVID-19-related mortality declined by 4.6% during periods of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Brzezinski et al. establish a link between science skepticism and compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place policies in the United States during March and April 2020. This relationship persists after controlling for political partisanship, socio-economic factors, income, education and COVID-19 prevalence.

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, Petherick, Goldszmidt et al. show that, from March to December 2020, adherence to physical distancing fell worldwide, while mask-wearing adherence increased.

Suthaharan et al. show that levels of paranoia increased in the general population during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, in association with more erratic belief updating. Government policies also played a role.

This Registered Report presents evidence from 87 countries and regions showing that brief emotion-regulation interventions consistently reduced negative emotions and increased positive emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

During a pandemic, trust in leaders is affected by how they resolve moral dilemmas. Across 22 countries, leaders’ endorsement of instrumental harm reduced public trust, while endorsement of impartial beneficence increased trust.

Using data-driven epidemiological modelling, Yu et al. estimate that, even with increasing vaccine availability, China will have to maintain stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions for at least a year to prevent new widespread outbreaks of COVID-19.

The implementation of COVID-19 stay-at-home policies was associated with a considerable drop in urban crime in 27 cities across 23 countries. More stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

The Our World in Data COVID-19 vaccination tracker charts the scale and rate of global vaccinations against COVID-19, making the data available to scientists, policymakers and the general public

Merkley and Loewen find that anti-intellectualism (distrust in experts and intellectuals) is linked to COVID-19 (mis)perceptions, compliance with public health directives and information search using survey and experimental data from Canada.

Recent phone survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria and Uganda reveals the breadth of the socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on individuals and households.

This study introduces a public dataset that finds that school closures in the United States have been more common in schools with lower math scores and higher rates of students from racial minorities, who experience homelessness, and who have lower incomes.

The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) records data on 19 different government COVID-19 policy indicators for over 190 countries. Covering closure and containment, health and economics measures, it creates an evidence base for effective responses.

Vaccination combined with physical distancing can suppress resurgences without relying on stay-at-home restrictions. To achieve herd immunity, cities with a higher population density require more stringent physical distancing measures with longer durations.

A randomized controlled trial reveals that exposure to recent online misinformation around a COVID-19 vaccine induces a decline in intent to vaccinate among adults in the UK and the USA.

Combining mobile tracking data and a survey experiment, Munzert et al. show that Germany’s contact tracing app is underused by those who socially distance less; however, even small cash incentives increased app uptake in the cohort.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, suicide rates in Japan declined by 14% during the initial wave (February to June 2020) but increased by 16% in the second wave (July to October 2020), with a larger increase (37%) among females.

Integrating human mobility and activity data with ground-level measurements and air quality models, Shen et al. find that despite a reduction in outdoor PM_2.5 during the COVID-19 quarantine in China, overall population exposure to PM_2.5 increased.

Druckman et al. use a two-wave survey fielded before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to study the relationship between affective polarization and issue positions. They find an association between previous out-party animus and COVID-19 policy beliefs, and local context moderates this relationship.

Analysing over 50,000 government interventions in more than 200 countries, Haug et al. find that combinations of softer measures, such as risk communication or those increasing healthcare capacity, can be almost as effective as disruptive lockdowns.

The COVID-19 Real-Time Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool allows individuals to assess risk associated with attending events of different sizes via a real-time, interactive website and helps individuals assess whether this risk is worth taking.

Physical distancing during COVID-19 was more difficult for residents of low-income US neighbourhoods. Using smartphone mobility data, Jay et al. find that days at work, not visits to other locations, explain these disparities and that state policies did not correct them.

Gollwitzer et al. use smartphone mobility tracking to show that US county support for Trump in 2016 was associated with a lower reduction in mobility in March–May 2020, which in turn was associated with higher COVID-19 infection and fatality growth rates in pro-Trump counties.

An analysis of news shared on Twitter estimates the level of infodemic risk associated with COVID-19 across countries. Epidemic spread and infodemic risk co-evolve, with reliable information becoming more dominant as infection rates rise locally.

Using a US state-level Bayesian susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed (SEIR) compartmental model, the authors demonstrate that, in almost all states, doubling rates of contact tracing and testing while also rolling back reopening by 25–50% via social distancing can mitigate the resurgence of COVID-19.

How We Feel is a web and mobile-phone application for collecting de-identified self-reported COVID-19-related data. These data are used to map a diverse set of symptomatic, demographic, exposure and behavioural factors relevant to the ongoing pandemic.

An agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission shows that testing, contact tracing and household quarantine could keep new COVID-19 waves under control while allowing the reopening of the economy with minimal social-distancing interventions.

Brazil has one of the fastest-growing COVID-19 epidemics in the world. De Souza et al. report epidemiological, demographic and clinical findings for COVID-19 cases in the country during the first 3 months of the epidemic.

The COVID-19 Government Response Event Dataset (CoronaNet v.1.0) compiles real time, publicly available (https://coronanet-project.org) data on policy announcements made in response to the COVID-19 pandemic across the world.

Lopez and Rodo explore post-lockdown scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR model, showing that lockdowns should last at least 60 days to avoid a second wave of infection. Social distancing, increasing awareness and personal protective behaviours could replace lockdowns.

Fusing models from epidemiology and network science, Block et al. show how to ease lockdown and slow infection spread by strategic modification of contact through seeking similarity, strengthening communities and repeating interaction in bubbles.

Guan et al. analyse the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on global supply chains. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to school closures and distance learning that are likely to exacerbate social class academic disparities. This Review presents an agenda for future research and outlines recommendations to help parents, teachers and policymakers to limit the impact of school closures.

Thirty-two experts propose ten considerations for managing the de-escalation of COVID-19 containment measures while still maintaining public adherence to social and physical distancing.

Forty-three experts highlight some key insights from the social and behavioural sciences for effective response to the COVID-19 pandemic and point out important gaps researchers should move quickly to fill in the coming weeks and months.

Behaviour change is crucial to preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions. West et al. argue that we urgently need effective interventions to increase adherence to personal protective behaviours.