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Alleviating water scarcity by optimizing crop mixes

Nature Water volume 1, pages 1035–1047 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

Irrigated agriculture dominates freshwater consumption globally, but crop production and farm revenues suffer when water supplies are insufficient to meet irrigation needs. In the United States, the mismatch between irrigation demand and freshwater availability has been exacerbated in recent decades due to recurrent droughts, climate change and overextraction that dries rivers and depletes aquifers. Yet, there has been no spatially detailed assessment of the potential for shifting to new crop mixes to reduce crop water demands and alleviate water shortage risks. In this study, we combined modelled crop water requirements and detailed agricultural statistics within a national hydrological model to quantify sub-basin-level river depletion, finding high-to-severe levels of irrigation scarcity in 30% of sub-basins in the western United States, with cattle-feed crops—alfalfa and other hay—being the largest water consumers in 57% of the region’s sub-basins. We also assessed recent trends in irrigation water consumption, crop production and revenue generation in six high-profile farming areas and found that in recent decades, water consumption has decreased in four of our study areas—a result of a reduction in the irrigated area and shifts in the production of the most water-consumptive crops—even while farm revenues increased. To examine the opportunities for crop shifting and fallowing to realize further reductions in water consumption, we performed optimizations on realistic scenarios for modifying crop mixes while sustaining or improving net farm profits, finding that additional water savings of 28–57% are possible across our study areas. These findings demonstrate strong opportunities for economic, food security and environmental co-benefits in irrigated agriculture and provide both hope and direction to regions struggling with water scarcity around the world.

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Fig. 1: Summer river depletion across the United States.
Fig. 2: Water demands for irrigation during the period 1981–2019.
Fig. 3: Exposure of individual crops to water scarcity risk in the western United States.
Fig. 4: Historical shifts in irrigation consumption and gross revenue.
Fig. 5: Historical shifts in crop-specific water consumption.
Fig. 6: Water savings from optimized cropping mixes.
Fig. 7: Optimized cropping mixes when fallowing of 30% is allowed.

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All data assembled or analysed in this study are available from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

P. Caldwell of the US Forest Service’s Southern Research Station in North Carolina performed all hydrological modelling for this study. K. Jin of the World Wildlife Fund contributed graphical illustrations. We are most grateful for their important contributions. L.M. acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation (grant nos. CBET-2144169 and RISE- 2108196) and the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (grant no. FF-NIA19-0000000084). K.F.D. and L.M. acknowledge support by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (grant no. 2022-67019-37180). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) alone.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sustainable Waters, Crozet, VA, USA

    Brian D. Richter

  2. World Wildlife Fund, Washington DC, USA

    Brian D. Richter

  3. The Charles E. Via, Jr. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA

    Yufei Ao, Gambhir Lamsal, Maria Amaya & Landon Marston

  4. Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA

    Dongyang Wei & Kyle Frankel Davis

  5. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Delaware, DE, USA

    Kyle Frankel Davis

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Contributions

B.D.R. designed the study and served as lead author of the paper. Y.A., G.L., D.W. and M.A. performed data gathering and data analysis and edited the paper. L.M. and K.F.D. helped to design the study, supervised the data analysis and edited the paper.

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Correspondence to Brian D. Richter.

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Richter, B.D., Ao, Y., Lamsal, G. et al. Alleviating water scarcity by optimizing crop mixes. Nat Water 1, 1035–1047 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00155-9

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