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Wetting and drying trends under climate change

Nature Water volume 1, pages 502–513 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

The geography and timing of changes in water availability under climate change are of considerable societal interest. Characterizing these changes in a robust and meaningful manner, however, has not been easy. In the past decade, studies have engaged two provocative hypotheses to explain and predict large-scale trends in water availability. One hypothesis holds that there will be increased contrasts in available water, as wet places become wetter and dry places become drier. Another hypothesis states that there will be global aridification, as widespread increases in evapotranspiration overwhelm changes in precipitation in most terrestrial regions. There is an extensive and sometimes contentious literature on the evidence for each. In some cases, these debates reflect direct disagreement, but the appearance of disagreement is exaggerated by the diversity of methods and terminologies employed in different studies. Herein we examine the applicability and limits of both hypotheses across different frameworks, scales and contexts, yielding insights on hydrologic change and the future of water availability.

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Fig. 1: Components of the general atmospheric circulation.
Fig. 2: Processes involved in meteorological, hydrological and agroecological aridification.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA

    Benjamin F. Zaitchik

  2. Earth Sciences for Hydrosphere, Biosphere, and Geophysics, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Matthew Rodell

  3. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA

    Michela Biasutti

  4. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Sonia I. Seneviratne

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  4. Sonia I. Seneviratne
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B.F.Z. proposed the concept for the review paper. B.F.Z., M.R., M.B. and S.I.S. wrote and edited the paper.

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Zaitchik, B.F., Rodell, M., Biasutti, M. et al. Wetting and drying trends under climate change. Nat Water 1, 502–513 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00073-w

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