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Prediction and projection of heatwaves

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 4, pages 36–50 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

Heatwaves constitute a major threat to human health and ecosystems. Projected increases in heatwave frequency and severity thus lead to the need for prediction to enhance preparedness and minimize adverse impacts. In this Review, we document current capabilities for heatwave prediction at daily to decadal timescales and outline projected changes under anthropogenic warming. Various local and remote drivers and feedbacks influence heatwave development. On daily timescales, extratropical atmospheric blocking and global land–atmosphere coupling are most pertinent, and on subseasonal to seasonal timescales, soil moisture and ocean surface anomalies contribute. Knowledge of these drivers allows heatwaves to be skilfully predicted at daily to weekly lead times. Predictions are challenging beyond timescales of a few weeks, but tendencies for above-average temperatures can be estimated. Further into the future, heatwaves are anticipated to become more frequent, persistent and intense in nearly all inhabited regions, with trends amplified by soil drying in some areas, especially the mid-latitudes. There is also an increased occurrence of humid heatwaves, especially in southern Asia. A better understanding of the relevant drivers and their model representation, including atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric and soil moisture, and surface cover should be prioritized to improve heatwave prediction and projection.

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Fig. 1: Summer temperatures under climate change.
Fig. 2: Schematic representation of processes contributing to mid-latitude summer heatwaves.
Fig. 3: Predictors for heatwaves over timescales from days to centuries.
Fig. 4: Subseasonal predictability of concurrent heatwaves in June 2021.
Fig. 5: Occurrence of very hot days under different warming levels.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Y.-W. Choi for help with creating the Box figure and R. W.-Y. Wu for the data download for Fig. 4. Support from the Swiss National Science Foundation through projects PP00P2_170523 and PP00P2_198896 to D.I.V.D. is gratefully acknowledged. S.E.P.-K. is supported by Australian Research Council grant numbers FT170100106 and CE170100023. A.W. received funding from the EU Horizon 2020 Project European Climate Prediction system (EUCP) grant agreement 776613. S.I.S. acknowledges funding from the EU Horizon 2020 Project XAIDA (grant agreement 101003469). E.M.F. acknowledges funding from the EU Horizon 2020 Project XAIDA (grant agreement 101003469) and by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant 200020_178778).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

    Daniela I. V. Domeisen

  2. Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Erich M. Fischer, Reto Knutti, Christoph Schär, Sonia I. Seneviratne & Heini Wernli

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Elfatih A. B. Eltahir

  4. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick

  5. Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Antje Weisheimer

  6. Research Department, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK

    Antje Weisheimer

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Contributions

D.I.V.D. initiated and led the Review, wrote the draft manuscript and created Figs. 2–5. C.S. made Fig. 1 and E.A.B.E. the box figure. All authors contributed to the writing and/or editing of the Review and gave feedback on the figures.

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Correspondence to Daniela I. V. Domeisen.

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Domeisen, D.I.V., Eltahir, E.A.B., Fischer, E.M. et al. Prediction and projection of heatwaves. Nat Rev Earth Environ 4, 36–50 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00371-z

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