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The unequal distribution of water risks and adaptation benefits in coastal Bangladesh

Nature Sustainability volume 5, pages 294–302 (2022)Cite this article

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Abstract

Increasing flood risk, salinization and waterlogging threaten the lives and livelihoods of more than 35 million people in Bangladesh’s coastal zone. While planning models have long been used to inform investments in water infrastructure, they frequently overlook interacting risks, impacts on the poor and local context. We address this gap by developing and applying a stochastic-optimization model to simulate the impact of flood embankment investments on the distribution of agricultural incomes across income groups for six diverse polders (embanked areas) in coastal Bangladesh. Results show that increasing salinity and waterlogging negate the benefits of embankment rehabilitation in improving agricultural production while improved drainage can alleviate these impacts. Outcomes vary across income groups, with risks of crop loss being greatest for the poor. We discuss the need for planning models to consider the interacting benefits and risks of infrastructure investments within a local political economy to better inform coastal adaptation decisions.

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Fig. 1: Variation in elevation, poverty and salinity across six case-study polders in Bangladesh’s coastal zone.
Fig. 2: Interacting flood hazard, vulnerability and infrastructure interventions influence the distribution of climate impacts.
Fig. 3: A typical simulation of future climate hazards and impacts on crop production for six polders assuming no embankment rehabilitation investment.
Fig. 4: Differences in average crop income loss between socioeconomic groups across scenarios and polders.
Fig. 5: Spatial variations in the effect of embankment investment and removing waterlogging and salinity on crop income.

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Data availability

The data generated for this study are available within the paper and Supplementary Information. Data analysed from third-party sources are available, but restrictions may apply to the availability of some of these data, which were accessed under specific agreements associated with the current study.

Code availability

Code used to undertake our analysis can be found at https://github.com/EmilyWaterModelling/CoastalRisk.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the REACH coastal risk team for their support and contributions through discussions, accessing data and facilitating field visits. We thank A. Allen for preparing Figs. 2 and 4 and M. Rahman for providing helpful references and comments. We also thank G. Kuczera for supporting the implementation of the eMoga optimization algorithm. We thank M. Mainuddin for comments that greatly improved the manuscript. This research was jointly funded by the REACH programme, which is itself funded by UK Aid from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) for the benefit of developing countries (programme code 201880) (supported authors E.J.B., M.S.G.A., M.S.A.K., M.S. and J.W.H.) and CSIRO through its Water Security Research Program (E.J.B.). The views expressed and information contained in this article are not necessarily those of or endorsed by FCDO, which can accept no responsibility for such views or information or for any reliance placed on them.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Emily J. Barbour, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Edoardo Borgomeo & Jim W. Hall

  2. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Emily J. Barbour

  3. Chittagong University of Engineering and Technology, Chattogram, Bangladesh

    Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan

  4. London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK

    Kasia Paprocki

  5. Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    M. Shah Alam Khan & Mashfiqus Salehin

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Contributions

E.J.B. and J.W.H. designed the study. E.J.B. and J.W.H. conducted most of the analysis, with input from M.S.G.A. E.J.B. wrote most of the manuscript, with input from all authors, who helped shape the overall narrative, contributed text, provided references and produced or contributed to figures.

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Correspondence to Emily J. Barbour.

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Supplementary Information, Figs. 1–11 and Tables 1–8.

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Barbour, E.J., Adnan, M.S.G., Borgomeo, E. et al. The unequal distribution of water risks and adaptation benefits in coastal Bangladesh. Nat Sustain 5, 294–302 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00846-9

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