Correction to: Nature Geoscience https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01325-w, published online 20 November 2023.

In the version of the article initially published, there were errors in Figs. 3a and 4a. In Fig. 3a, the range in the y-axis label has been changed from 200–100 to 200–0. In Fig. 4a, the range in the x-axis label has been changed from 1992–2004 to 1995–2020. The figures have been updated in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.