Correction to: Nature Geoscience https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01070-6. Published online 5 January 2023.

In the version of this article initially published, in the key for Figure 5a, the labels for the solid blue dot (now shown as Amb + eCO2) and open red triangle (now shown as +5.1 °C) were inadvertently swapped. The error has been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.