The Global Stocktake at COP28
The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP) taking place in Dubai from 30 November to 12 December 2023 will focus heavily on the first of the Global Stocktakes that were agreed upon in the Paris Agreement. In this infographic, we explain what the Global Stocktake is, how it works and the different interests and sticking points that are expected to shape the debate at COP28.
What is the Global Stocktake (GST)?
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The Global Stocktake (GST) is a 5-yearly checkpoint that was agreed upon in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Its aim is to help governments to track and evaluate their progress on climate action and boost climate ambition over time. The GST focuses on three aspects: mitigation, adaptation and finance.
The GST does not assess progress in individual countries, but the aggregate effect of action so far, motivating individual states to 'ratchet up' their own national targets, called nationally determined contributions or NDCs.
Once the GST is complete, countries will have two years to submit their updated NDCs to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) outlining how they intend to take stronger action.
How does the GST work?
There are three phases of the GST:
1) Information collection and preparation (started at COP26 in November 2021, and will conclude at the Bonn climate talks, 5–15 June 2023)
In this phase, reports from individual countries, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations (UN) and the UNFCCC are collected. They are used to produce at least 13 synthesis reports on the state of greenhouse gas emissions, adaptation, and the overall effects of NDCs and finance flows: 4 reports are from the UNFCCC secretariat; 9 reports are from the UN and international and regional organizations, and non-party stakeholders.
Further information will be submitted by governments, including on NDCs. Scientists and campaign organizations voluntarily provide information. There are already more than 1,000 documents on the UNFCCC GST portal.
2) Technical assessment (from mid-2022 to mid-2023)
The technical assessment considers the information collected in the first phase and uses it to produce summary reports on mitigation, adaptation and finance, as well as an overarching synthesis report.
This phase overlaps, in terms of time, with the information-collection phase to allow for interactions between the two phases.
It is managed by two co-facilitators, one from a developed country and one from a developing country. During the first GST, the two co-facilitators are Harald Winkler from South Africa and Farhan Akhtar from the US.
The technical assessment mainly took place at three technical dialogues, during COP27 (6–18 November 2022) in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, and two climate talks in Bonn, Germany (6–16 June 2022 and 5–15 June 2023).
A scientific synthesis report was published in September 2023 and will be discussed in October 2023, ahead of COP28.
3) Political phase and consideration of outputs
This phase will take place at COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 30 November–12 December 2023.
The GST at COP28
At COP28, the findings of the technical assessment will be discussed by negotiators, ministers and heads of state. Key political messages will be summarized, and opportunities for enhancing action and financial and technical support identified.
This phase is organized by COP28 president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, supported by two co-facilitators who conduct political consultations with parties of the negotiations. For COP28, Al Jaber has assigned Barbara Creecy from South Africa and Dan Jørgensen from Denmark this role.
The outcome will be published at the end of COP28. The official ‘cover decision’ of the COP, negotiated by all parties, could set out how the outcomes of the GST will be taken forward. There could also possibly be a declaration (similar to the outcomes of the G7 and G20 summits, for example). However, these declarations are not commonly used at UNFCCC COP meetings.
Although a draft of the structure for the GST outcome was discussed in Bonn in June 2023, the final format and output of the political process is still to be decided.
What are sticking points?
Fossil fuels
Many campaigners want the GST to support fossil fuel phase out.
At COP27, a proposal by India to expand the previously agreed phase down of coal to include oil and gas was supported by 80 countries, but failed to make the final agreement.
Yet, at the UNFCCC talks in Bonn in June 2023, the United Arab Emirates climate envoy and COP28 president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said that fossil fuel phase down is “inevitable”.
Finance
One question is how climate finance should be included in the GST as there are conflicting beliefs about how much historical responsibility for climate change should influence current action.
For example, developed countries have failed to deliver the US$100 billion promised in 2009 to support climate change mitigation and adaptation in poorer nations, which has become an issue in all climate negotiations.
What do different actors want
from the GST?
Climate Vulnerable Forum
Wants more funds for the poorest countries. These should be easily accessible funds and not loans.
(Alliance of 58 countries from Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America, the Middle East and the Pacific.)
United States
Wants more clarification on how donors' money is invested and on effectiveness to reduce emissions.
European Union
Wants to push for a global target for renewable energy installation at COP28, aiming to triple renewable energy capacity.
China
Wants to see more actions from developed countries, who, they declare, are the most responsible for climate change.
Timeline
- December 2015: Paris Agreement
- December 2018: COP24 – General focus of GST agreed upon
- November 2021: COP26 – Start of the information collection and preparation phase
- Mid-2022 to mid-2023: Technical assessment phase
- June 2022: Bonn climate talks – First of three technical dialogues
- November 2022: COP27 – Second of three technical dialogues
- June 2023: Bonn climate talks – Last of three technical dialogues, end of the information collection and preparation phase
- September 2023: Publication of scientific synthesis report
- 30 November–12 December 2023: COP28 – Political phase and consideration of outputs, and publication of output of GST
- December 2023–December 2025: Countries submit updated NDCs in response to the GST
Design and artwork: Valentina Monaco.
Background research: Catherine Early
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