National net zero emission targets could, if fully implemented, reduce best estimates of projected global average temperature increase to 2.0–2.4 °C by 2100, bringing the Paris Agreement temperature goal within reach. A total of 131 countries are discussing, have announced or have adopted net zero targets, covering 72% of global emissions. These targets could substantially lower projected warming as compared to currently implemented policies (2.9–3.2 °C) or pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.4–2.9 °C).
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Global emissions data used by the CAT approach as well as associated figure code are available at https://github.com/climate-analytics/wave_of_net_zero_targets. All other data not already available in publicly available locations are made available in the Supplementary Tables.
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We acknowledge the work of the IAM modellers for developing the IPCC AR5 and SR15 scenario databases and the MAGICC climate modelling team. N.H., M.J.G., F.H, C.F., A.G., M.L.J., S.G-Z, S.M. and W.H acknowledge funding support from the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (grant no. 16_I_291_Global_A_CAT). J.R. acknowledges support by funding through the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN).
The authors declare no competing interests.
Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Stefano Caserini, Rob Dellink, Kejun Jiang and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
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Höhne, N., Gidden, M.J., den Elzen, M. et al. Wave of net zero emission targets opens window to meeting the Paris Agreement. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 820–822 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01142-2