Extreme weather events are expected to increase with climate change. Such events are detrimental for local economic activity but could also affect countries that are not directly exposed through global agricultural production shortfalls and price surges. Here, estimations for 75 countries show that increases in global agricultural commodity prices caused by harvest or weather disruptions in other regions of the world significantly curtail economic activity. The impact is considerably stronger in advanced countries, despite relatively lower shares of food in household expenditures. Effects are weaker when countries are net exporters of agricultural products, have large agricultural sectors and/or are less integrated in global markets for non-agricultural trade. Once we control for these characteristics, the relationship between the country’s income per capita and the economic repercussions becomes negative. Overall, these findings suggest that the consequences of climate change on advanced countries, particularly through food prices, may be larger than previously thought.
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The datasets used for this paper are available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4665886.
The codes to reproduce the results of the paper are available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4665886.
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We acknowledge financial support from The Research Foundation Flanders (FWO), grant no. G020713N (G.P.). The UGent Special Research Fund (BOF) provided PhD scholarship for J.DeW.
The authors declare no competing interests.
Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Andrea Guariso, Will Martin and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
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De Winne, J., Peersman, G. The adverse consequences of global harvest and weather disruptions on economic activity. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 665–672 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01102-w