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Carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow amidst slowly emerging climate policies

Nature Climate Change volume 10, pages 3–6 (2020)Cite this article

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A failure to recognize the factors behind continued emissions growth could limit the world’s ability to shift to a pathway consistent with 1.5 °C or 2 °C of global warming. Continued support for low-carbon technologies needs to be combined with policies directed at phasing out the use of fossil fuels.

Although a focus on countries and regions is important, a focus on type of fossil fuels and key emitting sectors is particularly relevant for monitoring changes and implementing adequate mitigation policies. Globally, over the past decade (2009–2018), 42% of fossil CO2 emissions were from coal, 34% from oil, 19% from natural gas, and the remaining 5% from cement and other smaller sources (Fig. 1b). In 2019, CO2 emissions from coal are projected to decline by 0.9%, with substantial drops in emissions from coal use in the United States (–10%) and the EU28 (–10%), and weak growth in China and India due to economic and weather anomalies. Oil is projected to grow by 0.9% in 2019 and natural gas by 2.6%, both in line with growth over the past 10 years.

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Fig. 1: Global fossil CO2 emissions showing projections for 2019.
Fig. 2: Carbon dioxide emissions from different fossil fuels by sector.

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Acknowledgements

We thank R. Quadrelli and F. Mattion from the International Energy Agency (IEA) for provision of data and understanding of appropriate use thereof. G.P.P., R.M.A., P.F. and J.I.K. acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821003 (CCiCC). G.P.P., R.A., J.I.K. and C.L.Q. acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 776810 (VERIFY). J.G.C. acknowledges the support of the Australian National Environmental Science Program — Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. A.P. acknowledges the Climate and Biodiversity Initiative of BNP Paribas Foundation for the support of Global Carbon Atlas hosting the Global Carbon Budget emissions data set.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway

    G. P. Peters, R. M. Andrew & J. I. Korsbakken

  2. Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    J. G. Canadell

  3. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    P. Friedlingstein

  4. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Département de Géosciences, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France

    P. Friedlingstein

  5. Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

    R. B. Jackson

  6. Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

    R. B. Jackson

  7. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

    C. Le Quéré

  8. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, Cedex, France

    A. Peregon

  9. Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia

    A. Peregon

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Peters, G.P., Andrew, R.M., Canadell, J.G. et al. Carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow amidst slowly emerging climate policies. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 3–6 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0659-6

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