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Model-based assessments for long-term climate strategies

Nature Climate Change volume 9, pages 345–347 (2019)Cite this article

Many countries are formulating a long-term climate strategy to be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by 2020. Model-based, multi-disciplinary assessments can be a key ingredient for informing policy makers and engaging stakeholders in this process.

To limit global warming, countries around the world are working towards the implementation of international climate policy following the rulebook established during the twenty-fourth Conference of the Parties (COP24) in Katowice, Poland in December 2018. At the same time, governments are formulating a long-term vision, due by the end of 2020 and in line with Article 4.19 of the Paris Agreement, to answer the second question of the Talanoa Dialogue: Where do we want to go? Together with the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), these long-term strategies will be instrumental in mapping out the road to limit global temperature increase to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to keep warming below 1.5°C.

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Fig. 1: Global, regional, sectoral, and technology perspectives.
Fig. 2: An integrated perspective provides a basis for achieving a broad set of goals.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Seville, Spain

    Matthias Weitzel, Toon Vandyck, Kimon Keramidas, Stéphane Tchung-Ming, Ana Díaz Vázquez & Bert Saveyn

  2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    Markus Amann & Stefan Frank

  3. E3MLab, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece

    Pantelis Capros

  4. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands

    Michel den Elzen

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  1. Matthias Weitzel
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Correspondence to Toon Vandyck.

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Weitzel, M., Vandyck, T., Keramidas, K. et al. Model-based assessments for long-term climate strategies. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 345–347 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0453-5

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