Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Early sowing systems can boost Australian wheat yields despite recent climate change

Nature Climate Change volume 9, pages 244–247 (2019)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Price surges in staple foods trigger civil unrest and conflict1. The food riots of 2007–2008 and Arab spring uprisings (2010–2012) were, in part, a consequence of price increases due to a tightening supply of staple grains, particularly wheat. Prolonged drought in Australia contributed to the global wheat shortage; Australia accounts for 10% of global wheat exports2. Australian wheat yields have plateaued3 owing to reduced rainfall4,5 and increasing temperatures3 attributed to anthropogenic climate change6. If Australia is to increase wheat production in line with projected global population growth and demand, an increase in yield is required7. Crop simulations reveal that an early sowing system combined with slower-developing wheat genotypes could exploit a longer growing season8. We developed near-isogenic lines and tested this hypothesis in experiments across the grain belt of Australia, and extended the results using whole-farm simulations. Our proposed early sowing system can increase national yields by 0.54 (s.d. = 0.38) t ha−1 representing an additional 7.1 Mt annually under reduced rainfall and increasing temperature regimes. This adaptation could facilitate increasing yields across Australia under climate change with global food security benefits.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Get just this article for as long as you need it

$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Mean grain yield benefit of the near isogenic lines at different sowing dates in different environments.
Fig. 2: Location of the 23 simulated sites relative to Australian winter cereal production, and the magnitude of the mean yield benefit due to the early sowing strategy.
Fig. 3: Variability in simulated annual yield benefit achieved by sowing wheat earlier using a slower-developing cultivar.

Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

References

  1. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2017. Building Resilience for Peace and Food Security (FAO, 2017).

  2. Fischer, R. A., Byerlee, D. & Edmeades, G. O. Crop Yields and Global Food Security: Will Yield Increase Continue to Feed the World? ACIAR Monograph No. 158 (Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, 2014).

  3. Hochman, Z., Gobbett, D. L. & Horan, H. Climate trends account for stalled wheat yields in Australia since 1990. Glob. Change Biol. 23, 2071–2081 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Pook, M. et al. The autumn break for cropping in southeast Australia: trends, synoptic influences and impacts on wheat yield. Int. J. Climatol. 29, 2012–2026 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Cai, W., Cowan, T. & Thatcher, M. Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: the role of subtropical dry zone expansion. Sci. Rep. 2, 702 (2012).

  6. Cai, W. J. & Cowan, T. Southeast Australia autumn rainfall reduction: a climate-change-induced poleward shift of ocean–atmosphere circulation. J. Clim. 26, 189–205 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Qureshi, M. E., Hanjra, M. A. & Ward, J. Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy 38, 136–145 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. van Rees, H. et al. Leading farmers in South East Australia have closed the exploitable wheat yield gap: prospects for further improvement. Field Crops Res. 164, 1–11 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Flohr, B. M., Hunt, J. R., Kirkegaard, J. A. & Evans, J. R. Water and temperature stress define the optimal flowering period for wheat in south-eastern Australia. Field Crops Res. 209, 108–119 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Kerr, N. J., Siddique, K. H. M. & Delane, R. J. Early sowing with wheat cultivars of suitable maturity increases grain-yield of spring wheat in a short season environment. Aust. J. Exp. Agric. 32, 717–723 (1992).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Bodner, G., Nakhforoosh, A. & Kaul, H. P. Management of crop water under drought: a review. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 35, 401–442 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Kirkegaard, J. A. et al. Effect of defoliation by grazing or shoot removal on the root growth of field-grown wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Crop Pasture Sci. 66, 249–259 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Passioura, J. B. & Angus, J. Improving productivity of crops in water-limited environments. Adv. Agron. 106, 37–75 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Kemanian, A. R., Stockle, C. O. & Huggins, D. R. Transpiration-use efficiency of barley. Agric. For. Meteorol. 130, 1–11 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Fletcher, A., Lawes, R. & Weeks, C. Crop area increases drive earlier and dry sowing in Western Australia: implications for farming systems. Crop Pasture Sci. 67, 1268–1280 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Flohr, B. M. et al. Fast winter wheat phenology can stabilise flowering date and maximise grain yield in semi-arid Mediterranean and temperate environments. Field Crops Res. 223, 12–25 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Zheng, B., Chapman, S. C., Christopher, J. T., Frederiks, T. M. & Chenu, K. Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt. J. Exp. Bot. 66, 3611–3623 (2015).

  18. Penrose, L. D. J. & Martin, R. H. Comparison of winter habit and photoperiod sensitivity in delaying development in early-sown wheat at a site in New South Wales. Aust. J. Exp. Agric. 37, 181–190 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Shavrukov, Y. et al. Early flowering as a drought escape mechanism in plants: how can it aid wheat production? Front. Plant Sci. 8, 1950 (2017).

  20. Eagles, H. A., Cane, K. & Vallance, N. The flow of alleles of important photoperiod and vernalisation genes through Australian wheat. Crop Pasture Sci. 60, 646–657 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Hunt, J. R. Winter wheat cultivars in Australian farming systems: a review. Crop Pasture Sci. 68, 501–515 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Hochman, Z. et al. Quantifying yield gaps in rainfed cropping systems: a case study of wheat in Australia. Field Crops Res. 136, 85–96 (2012) .

  23. Penrose, L. Yield of early dryland sowing of wheat with winter and spring habit in southern and central New South Wales. Aust. J. Exp. Agric. 33, 601–608 (1993).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Coventry, D. R., Reeves, T. G., Brooke, H. D. & Cann, D. K. Influence of genotype, sowing date, and seeding rate on wheat development and yield. Aust. J. Exp. Agric. 33, 751–757 (1993).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Gomez-Macpherson, H. & Richards, R. A. Effect of sowing time on yield and agronomic characteristics of wheat in south-eastern Australia. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 46, 1381–1399 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Woodruff, D. R. & Tonks, J. Relationship between time of anthesis and grain-yield of wheat genotypes with differing developmental patterns. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 34, 1–11 (1983).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Holzworth, D. P. et al. APSIM — evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation. Environ. Model. Softw. 62, 327–350 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Fletcher, A. L., Robertson, M. J., Abrecht, D. G., Sharma, D. L. & Holzworth, D. P. Dry sowing increases farm level wheat yields but not production risks in a Mediterranean environment. Agric. Syst. 136, 114–124 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Agricultural Commodity Statistics 2017 (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, 2017).

  30. Hochman, Z. & Horan, H. Causes of wheat yield gaps and opportunities to advance the water-limited yield frontier in Australia. Field Crops Res. 228, 20–30 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Steinfort, U., Trevaskis, B., Fukai, S., Bell, K. L. & Dreccer, M. F. Vernalisation and photoperiod sensitivity in wheat: impact on canopy development and yield components. Field Crops Res. 201, 108–121 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Cane, K. et al. Ppd-B1 and Ppd-D1 and their effects in southern Australian wheat. Crop Pasture Sci. 64, 100–114 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  33. Bell, L. W., Lilley, J. M., Hunt, J. R. & Kirkegaard, J. A. Optimising grain yield and grazing potential of crops across Australia’s high-rainfall zone: a simulation analysis. 1. Wheat. Crop Pasture Sci. 66, 332–348 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Flohr, B. M., Hunt, J. R., Kirkegaard, J. A., Evans, J. R. & Lilley, J. M. Genotype × management strategies to stabilise the flowering time of wheat in the south-eastern Australian wheatbelt. Crop Pasture Sci. 69, 547–560 (2018).

  35. Asseng, S. et al. Performance of the APSIM-wheat model in Western Australia. Field Crops Res. 57, 163–179 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Carberry, P. S. et al. Re-inventing model-based decision support with Australian dryland farmers. 3. Relevance of APSIM to commercial crops. Crop Pasture Sci. 60, 1044–1056 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Land Use of Australia. v.4 2005–06 http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/aclump/land-use/data-download (ABARE-BRS, 2010).

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research is funded by GRDC co-investment in projects CSP00178 ‘Increasing yield and reducing risk through early sowing in the southern grains region’ and CSP00183 ‘Pedigree based association genetics of wheat phenology’. We thank Living Farm, Eurofins, AgGrow Agronomy, SARDI, QDAF, FAR Australia, Southern Farming Systems, B. Rheinheimer, A. Swan, L. Goward, J. Byrne, A. Wixon and J. Lawrence for managing regional experiments. We thank all wheat growers who hosted field experiments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Animal, Plant and Soil Sciences, AgriBio Centre for AgriBiosciences, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    James R. Hunt

  2. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Julianne M. Lilley, Ben Trevaskis & John A. Kirkegaard

  3. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

    Bonnie M. Flohr & David Gobbett

  4. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia

    Allan Peake

  5. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Perth, Western Australia, Australia

    Andrew Fletcher

  6. Data61 CSIRO, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Alexander B. Zwart

Authors
  1. James R. Hunt
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Julianne M. Lilley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ben Trevaskis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Bonnie M. Flohr
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Allan Peake
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Andrew Fletcher
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Alexander B. Zwart
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. David Gobbett
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. John A. Kirkegaard
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

B.T. developed the near isogenic lines. J.R.H., A.B.Z., A.F., A.P., B.T. and B.M.F. conceptualized and designed the experiments. J.R.H. analysed the experimental data. J.R.H., A.F., A.P. and B.M.F. maintained field experiments and collected field data. J.M.L. and J.R.H. designed the APSIM whole-farm simulation, J.M.L. conducted the simulation, and analysed and prepared figures. D.G. prepared maps and spatially extrapolated simulation results. J.R.H., J.M.L. and J.A.K. wrote the manuscript, with edits and contributions from all other authors.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to James R. Hunt.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Journal peer review information: Nature Climate Change thanks Sheri Strydhorst, Miroslav Trnka, Ken Giller and the other anonymous reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figure 1, Supplementary Tables 1–5

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hunt, J.R., Lilley, J.M., Trevaskis, B. et al. Early sowing systems can boost Australian wheat yields despite recent climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 244–247 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0417-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0417-9

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing