How climate affects biotic interactions is a question of urgent concern1,2,3. Theory predicts that biotic interactions are stronger at lower latitudes4,5,6. However, the role of climate in governing these patterns is typically assumed, rather than explicitly tested. Here, we dissected the influence of climatic descriptors on predation pressure using data from a global experiment with model caterpillars. We then used projections of future climate change to predict shifts in predation pressure. Climate, particularly components of temperature, explained latitudinal and elevational patterns of predation better than latitude or elevation by themselves. Projected predation pressure was greater under higher temperatures and more stable climates. Increased climatic instability projected for the near future predicts a general decrease in predation pressure over time. By identifying the current climatic drivers of global patterns in a key biotic interaction, we show how shifts in these drivers could alter the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and their associated services.
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The data that support the findings of this study are publicly available in the Dryad Digital Repository at https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j432q.
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We are most grateful to all authors of Roslin et al.14; without their contributions, this study would not have been possible. G.Q.R. was supported by BPE-FAPESP (grant no. 2016/01209-9) and CNPq-Brazil research grants. T.S.-S. was supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant no. 151003/2018-1). We gratefully acknowledge funding from the Academy of Finland (grant nos 138346, 276909, 285803 to T.R.). This work was performed during GQR’s sabbatical stay at Queen Mary University of London. This paper is a contribution of the Brazilian Network on Global Climate Change Research funded by CNPq (grant no. 550022/2014-7) and FINEP (grant no. 01.13.0353.00).
The authors declare no competing interests.
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Romero, G.Q., Gonçalves-Souza, T., Kratina, P. et al. Global predation pressure redistribution under future climate change. Nature Clim Change 8, 1087–1091 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0347-y
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