In key European cities, stabilizing climate warming at 1.5 °C would decrease extreme heat-related mortality by 15–22% per summer compared with stabilization at 2 °C.

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Acknowledgements

We thank M. Oppenheimer for valuable discussions on the manuscript. D.M. was supported by a NERC independent research fellowship (NE/NO14057/1). H.S. is supported by the ERTD Fund (2-1702) of ERCA and TOUGOU of MEXT, Japan. N.S. and J.S. received support from the Norwegian Research Council, project nos 261821 (HappiEVA) and 243953 (ClimateXL). AG is supported by the Medical Research Council UK (grant no. MR/M022625/1). This research used science gateway resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under contract no. DE-AC02- 05CH11231.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

    • Daniel Mitchell
  2. Chemical and Environmental Effects Department, Public Health England, Oxford, UK

    • Clare Heaviside
  3. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

    • Clare Heaviside
    •  & Sotiris Vardoulakis
  4. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

    • Clare Heaviside
    • , Antonio Gasparrini
    •  & Sotiris Vardoulakis
  5. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway

    • Nathalie Schaller
    •  & Jana Sillmann
  6. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    • Myles Allen
    •  & Luke Harrington
  7. Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    • Kristie L. Ebi
  8. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    • Erich M. Fischer
  9. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

    • Viatcheslav Kharin
  10. Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

    • Hideo Shiogama
  11. The Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway

    • Sebastian Sippel
  12. Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh, UK

    • Sotiris Vardoulakis
  13. European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro, UK

    • Sotiris Vardoulakis

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Correspondence to Daniel Mitchell.

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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0210-1

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