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NATURAL DISASTERS

Moving flood risk modelling forwards

Nature Climate Change volume 8, pages 561–562 (2018)Cite this article

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Floods are one of the most devastating disasters and their intensity and severity is expected to increase in the future. New research shows how regional floods can cause global impacts through propagation within the global trade and supply network.

The framework used by Willner and colleagues3 (the Acclimate model5) is one of several recently developed approaches specifically intended to capture the economic impacts of disasters6,7,8. Common between these approaches is not only their aim to capture both supply- and demand-side disruptions, but also to improve the understanding of post-disaster dynamics in the economic system, within and outside the affected region. This is one of the key differences from the traditional risk assessment approaches. By being able to model the wider economic impacts we can improve our understanding of possible substitution effects, price changes and economic dependencies between both industries and regions, among other factors. As outlined by Willner and co-authors3, regions not directly hit by a disaster may amplify the losses, but could also partially compensate them in the aftermath, depending on their trade relations with the affected region and their economic structure.

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  1. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Elco Koks

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  1. Elco Koks
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Correspondence to Elco Koks.

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Koks, E. Moving flood risk modelling forwards. Nature Clim Change 8, 561–562 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0185-y

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