Transport Policy 61, 60–74 (2018)

Transport-related greenhouse gas emissions grew by 13.3% in the EU-28 during 1990–2014, contributing the second-highest volume of emissions after the energy sector. In order to design effective mitigation policies, it is necessary to understand the key drivers of this increase, particularly to achieve the objective of the European Commission Transport White Paper: a 60% reduction in transport emissions by 2050, relative to 1990. Lidia Andrés and Emilio Padilla from Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, Spain, use a regression-based model to quantify the factors influencing European emissions from road, rail, and domestic aviation and waterborne transport, and in doing so, highlight strategies for future emission reductions.

The authors outline that economic activity, transport volume, modal share, and energy mix all influence emissions in Western and Eastern Europe, but that the most variability is related to population and transport energy intensity. Policies targeting improved energy efficiency — replacing old vehicles, using high quality fuels, and infrastructure improvements — could therefore greatly reduce transport emissions. Future policies should additionally promote a shift from road to rail, and from oil-based fuels to electricity. These results provide effective solutions to meet the aims of the Transport White Paper.