Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains

Abstract

Most climate change mitigation scenarios that are consistent with the 1.5–2 °C target rely on a large-scale contribution from biomass, including advanced (second-generation) biofuels. However, land-based biofuel production has been associated with substantial land-use change emissions. Previous studies show a wide range of emission factors, often hiding the influence of spatial heterogeneity. Here we introduce a spatially explicit method for assessing the supply of advanced biofuels at different emission factors and present the results as emission curves. Dedicated crops grown on grasslands, savannahs and abandoned agricultural lands could provide 30 EJBiofuel yr−1 with emission factors less than 40 kg of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) emissions per GJBiofuel (for an 85-year time horizon). This increases to 100 EJBiofuel yr−1 for emission factors less than 60 kgCO2e GJBiofuel −1. While these results are uncertain and depend on model assumptions (including time horizon, spatial resolution, technology assumptions and so on), emission curves improve our understanding of the relationship between biofuel supply and its potential contribution to climate change mitigation while accounting for spatial heterogeneity.

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Fig. 1: Maps of EF85 and its components.
Fig. 2: EF85 emission curves disaggregated for different initial land-cover types.
Fig. 3: Effect of assumptions on potential at different EF85 values.

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Contributions

V.D., J.C.D, E.S. B.W., A.F. and D.P.v.V developed the methodological framework. J.C.D. conducted the IMAGE-LPJmL model simulations. E.S. and C.M. checked the consistency of carbon stocks and flows in IMAGE-LPJmL. V.D. calculated the EFs and PBPs. All authors contributed to writing the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Vassilis Daioglou.

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Supplementary Notes, Supplementary Results (including Supplementary Figures 1–4, Supplementary Tables 1–5), and Supplementary References

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Daioglou, V., Doelman, J.C., Stehfest, E. et al. Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains. Nature Clim Change 7, 920–924 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0006-8

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