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Market concentration of new antibiotic sales

Abstract

We calculate the average sales of new antibiotics during their first 8 years on the market. The discounted net present value is only $240 m in total per antibiotic, well below costs of supplying these products. The reliance on the US for sales is striking: the US market accounts for 84% of sales during the first 8 years. These facts clarify the need for additional revenues, especially from other countries, to support incentives for the development of new antibiotics. Market entry rewards may be of particular value.

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Fig. 1
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Notes

  1. 1.

    Avibactam Ceftazidime, Ceftaroline Fosamil, Ceftobiprole modecaril, Ceftolozane, Dalbavancin, Delafloxacin, Meropenem vaborbactam, Oritavancin, Tedizolid, and Telvancin.

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    https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/appletter/2015/206494Orig1s000ltr.pdf, https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/assessment-report/zavicefta-epar-public-assessment-report_en.pdf, https://www.drugs.com/nda/dalvance_140401.html, https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/assessment-report/xydalba-epar-public-assessment-report_en.pdf, https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/assessment-report/xydalba-epar-public-assessment-report_en.pdf, all accessed 14 November 2020.

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Funding

Funding for this work comes from the Canadian Institute for Health Research (grant number pending), the Swiss National Fund (grant number 40AR40_180205/1), and the Swedish Research Council (grant number 2017-05973), coordinated via the Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance, and the Major Innovation Fund program of the Ministry of Jobs, Economy and Innovation, Government of Alberta through the AMR – One Health Consortium. The funders have no involvement in the research itself.

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Correspondence to Aidan Hollis.

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Rahman, S., Lindahl, O., Morel, C.M. et al. Market concentration of new antibiotic sales. J Antibiot 74, 421–423 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41429-021-00414-5

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