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Application of the CIBMTR One Year Survival Outcomes Calculator as a tool for retrospective analysis

Bone Marrow Transplantation volume 58, pages 1089–1095 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

The Web-based One Year Survival Outcomes Calculator developed by the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) applies large-scale registry data to generate individualized estimates of overall survival (OS) probability 1 year after first allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) and can therefore provide a data-driven foundation for personalized patient counseling. We assessed the calibration of the CIBMTR One Year Survival Outcomes Calculator when applied to retrospective data among adult recipients of first allogeneic HCT for acute myeloid leukemia (AML), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), or myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) with peripheral blood stem cell transplant (PBSCT) from a 7/8- or 8/8-matched donor from 2000 through 2015 at a single center. Predicted 1 year OS was estimated for each patient using the CIBMTR Calculator. Corresponding observed 1 year OS was estimated for each group by the Kaplan-Meier method. A weighted Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to visually display the average of observed 1 year survival estimates over the continuous range of predicted OS. In the first analysis of its kind, we demonstrated that the CIBMTR One Year Survival Outcomes Calculator could be applied to larger patient cohorts and predicted 1 year prognosis with general agreement between predicted and observed survival.

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Fig. 1: Predicted versus observed survival after CD34+-selected PBSCT.
Fig. 2: Predicted versus observed survival after unmodified PBSCT.
Fig. 3: Predicted versus observed survival after allogeneic PBSCT for AML.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and analyzed during the current study are not publicly available due to patient privacy considerations but are available in deidentified form from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported in part by National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute grant P01 CA23766 and National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute Cancer Center Support grant P30 CA008748.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Medicine, Stem Cell Transplantation and Cellular Therapy Service, John Theurer Cancer Center, Hackensack University Medical Center, Hackensack, NJ, USA

    Christina Cho

  2. Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA

    Sean Devlin

  3. Department of Medicine, Adult Bone Marrow Transplant Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA

    Molly Maloy & Sergio A. Giralt

  4. Medical College of Wisconsin and Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, Milwaukee, WI, USA

    Mary M. Horowitz, Brent Logan & J. Douglas Rizzo

  5. Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA

    Sergio A. Giralt & Miguel-Angel Perales

Authors
  1. Christina Cho
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  2. Sean Devlin
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  4. Mary M. Horowitz
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  5. Brent Logan
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  7. Sergio A. Giralt
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  8. Miguel-Angel Perales
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Contributions

CC, SD, SAG, and MAP designed the study. SD performed the biostatistical analyses. MM served as the data manager. CC curated the data. CC and SD wrote the manuscript. MMH, BL, JDR, BS, SAG, and MAP critically reviewed the manuscript and made substantive contributions to the text and interpretation of the data.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Miguel-Angel Perales.

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Competing interests

CC, SD, MM, MMH, BL: None. JDR: Optum Stem Cell - Compensation as participant on expert panel to provide input/information about the center-specific survival analysis; compensation directed to Medical College of Wisconsin rather than personally. SAG: Amgen, Actinium, BMS, Celgene, GSK, Kite, Janssen, Jazz Pharma, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi, Spectrum Pharma, Takeda - Membership on board of directors or advisory committees. Amgen, Actinium, Celgene, Johnson & Johnson, Miltenyi, Omeros - Institutional research support. M-AP—Adicet, Allovir, Caribou Biosciences, Celgene, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Equilium, Exevir, Incyte, Karyopharm, Kite/Gilead, Merck, Miltenyi Biotec, MorphoSys, Nektar Therapeutics, Novartis, Omeros, OrcaBio, Syncopation, VectivBio AG, Vor Biopharma - Honoraria. Cidara Therapeutics, Medigene, Sellas Life Sciences - DSMB. NexImmune - Membership on advisory committee. NexImmune, Omeros, OrcaBio - Ownership interests. Other. Incyte, Kite/Gilead, Miltenyi Biotec, Nektar Therapeutics, Novartis - Institutional research support.

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Cho, C., Devlin, S., Maloy, M. et al. Application of the CIBMTR One Year Survival Outcomes Calculator as a tool for retrospective analysis. Bone Marrow Transplant 58, 1089–1095 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41409-023-02031-2

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