Abstract
The winter/spring seasonality of KD has been recognized for over two decades and a recent study found that KD incidence in San Diego (SD) County was positively associated with average monthly precipitation (r=0.52, p<0.001) (Bronstein et al., Ped Inf Dis J. 2000;19:1087-91). Based on this observation, 246 KD cases from SD County over 6.75 yrs were analyzed for additional climate associations. Fifty-eight clusters (=2 pts within 4 d) were identified and 15/58 had 3 or 4 pts. These 15 clusters were temporally associated with strong, anomalously negative 700mb heights (lower than average pressure), in a broad lower midaltitude swath offshore of California, indicating an active storm track and quite likely wet conditions in SD County starting 6 days prior to the onset of the first case in the cluster and waning by 4 days after onset. Rainfall tended to precede the onset of a KD cluster. In 10 of the 15 clusters, we found preceding precipitation of at least 0.1“recorded in the 6-day interval before the first case in the cluster. Analysis of an additional 23 consecutive SD County cases from 2000-2001 revealed distinct clusters associated with weather patterns similar to those described above. Examination of 278 pts from Los Angeles Children's Hospital from 1994-2000 revealed similar patterns of atmospheric circulation but without the distinct wet signature that was noted for the SD cases. Analysis of 36,955 cases from Japan (1993-1998) for clustering and climate associations is in progress. Additional parameters including wind, humidity, cloud cover, weather type, visibility, barometric pressure, and dry-wet transitions will be explored in relation to KD clusters in California and Japan. The accurate specification of weather patterns related to the onset of KD may lead to formulation of new hypotheses regarding etiology.
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Burns, J., Mason, W., Yanagawa, H. et al. Kawasaki Disease: A Climate Connection?. Pediatr Res 53, 166 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1203/00006450-200301000-00077
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1203/00006450-200301000-00077