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Committed climate warming

Nature Geoscience volume 3, pages 142–143 (2010)Cite this article

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To the Editor

The perception that future climate warming is inevitable stands at the centre of current climate-policy discussions. We argue that the notion of unavoidable warming owing to inertia in the climate system is based on an incorrect interpretation of climate science. Stable atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would lead to continued warming, but if carbon dioxide emissions could be eliminated entirely, temperatures would quickly stabilize or even decrease over time. Future warming is therefore driven by socio-economic inertia, and is only as inevitable as future emissions. As a consequence, mitigation efforts to minimize future greenhouse-gas emissions can successfully restrict future warming to a level that may avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The challenge of climate mitigation, although daunting, is fully within the scope of human control.

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Figure 1: Two representations of climate commitment.

References

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve Boulevard W., Montreal, H3G 1M8, Quebec, Canada

    H. Damon Matthews

  2. School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, PO Box 3065 STN CSC, Victoria British Columbia, V8W 3V6, Canada

    Andrew J. Weaver

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  1. H. Damon Matthews
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  2. Andrew J. Weaver
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Correspondence to H. Damon Matthews.

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Matthews, H., Weaver, A. Committed climate warming. Nature Geosci 3, 142–143 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo813

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