The observed acceleration of outlet glaciers and ice flows in Greenland and Antarctica is closely linked to ocean warming, especially in the subsurface layer1,2,3,4,5. Accurate projections of ice-sheet dynamics and global sea-level rise therefore require information of future ocean warming in the vicinity of the large ice sheets. Here we use a set of 19 state-of-the-art climate models to quantify this ocean warming in the next two centuries. We find that in response to a mid-range increase in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, the subsurface oceans surrounding the two polar ice sheets at depths of 200–500 m warm substantially compared with the observed changes thus far6,7,8. Model projections suggest that over the course of the twenty-first century, the maximum ocean warming around Greenland will be almost double the global mean, with a magnitude of 1.7–2.0 °C. By contrast, ocean warming around Antarctica will be only about half as large as global mean warming, with a magnitude of 0.5–0.6 °C. A more detailed evaluation indicates that ocean warming is controlled by different mechanisms around Greenland and Antarctica. We conclude that projected subsurface ocean warming could drive significant increases in ice-mass loss, and heighten the risk of future large sea-level rise.
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We thank J. Gregory for constructive comments and many others at GFDL for carrying out the AR4/CMIP3 integrations. We also thank the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for data archiving.
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
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Yin, J., Overpeck, J., Griffies, S. et al. Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica. Nature Geosci 4, 524–528 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1189
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