Are continuing changes in the Arctic influencing wind patterns and the occurrence of extreme weather events in northern mid-latitudes? The chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation precludes easy answers. The topic is a major science challenge, as continued Arctic temperature increases are an inevitable aspect of anthropogenic climate change. We propose a perspective that rejects simple cause-and-effect pathways and notes diagnostic challenges in interpreting atmospheric dynamics. We present a way forward based on understanding multiple processes that lead to uncertainties in Arctic and mid-latitude weather and climate linkages. We emphasize community coordination for both scientific progress and communication to a broader public.
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J.E.O. is supported by NOAA Arctic Research Project of the Climate Program Office. J.A.F. is supported by NSF/ARCSS Grant 1304097. K.D. acknowledges support from the German DFG Transregional Collaborative Research Centre TR 172. J.A.S. was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council grants NE/J019585/1 and NE/M006123/1. R.J.H. and E.H. acknowledge support from the University of Sheffield's Project Sunshine. S.-J.K. was supported by the project of Korea Polar Research Institute (PE16010), and T.V. was supported by the Academy of Finland (Contract 259537). We appreciate the support of IASC, CliC and the University of Sheffield for hosting a productive workshop. PMEL Contribution Number 4429.
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
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Overland, J., Dethloff, K., Francis, J. et al. Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic. Nature Clim Change 6, 992–999 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3121
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