Glob. Change Biol. http://doi.org/bksb (2016)

Credit: © ALL CANADA PHOTOS / ALAMY STOCK PHOTO

Rapid climate change in northern high latitudes has the potential to affect millions of migrating birds. Climatic impacts on the timing of migration are relatively well researched but consequences for the spatial distribution of species throughout their migratory cycles remain insufficiently studied.

To address this gap Hannah Wauchope at the School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Australia, and colleagues modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and then projected them out to 2070 to investigate how they might change in response to warming in the region.

They find that in their simulations, climatically suitable breeding conditions alter quite drastically, with 66–83% of study species losing the majority of currently suitable breeding grounds by 2070. These projected changes in conditions may affect the species composition of the world's major migratory flyways. Something of a silver lining lies in the fact that protected area coverage generally meets target levels in both current and projected future climatically suitable areas, though there remains room for improvement, particularly within the Canadian Arctic.