Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Projection and prediction

Climate sensitivity on the rise

Subjects

Recent observations of Earth's energy budget indicate low climate sensitivity. Research now shows that these estimates should be revised upward, resolving an apparent mismatch with climate models and implying a warmer future.

This is a preview of subscription content

Access options

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

from$8.99

All prices are NET prices.

Figure 1: Probability distribution of climate response to forcings.

References

  1. 1

    Otto, A. et al. Nature Geosci. 6, 415–416 (2013).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  2. 2

    Lewis, N. & Curry, J. A. Clim. Dynam. 45, 1009–1023 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. 3

    Richardson, M., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E. & Stolpe, M. B. Nature Clim. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3066 (2016).

  4. 4

    Geoffroy, O. et al. J. Clim. 26, 1859–1876 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. 5

    Pinker, S. The Sense of Style: The Thinking Person's Guide to Writing in the 21st Century (Penguin, 2014).

    Google Scholar 

  6. 6

    Marvel, K., Schmidt, G. A., Miller, R. L. & Nazarenko, L. S. Nature Clim. Change 6, 386–389 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. 7

    Winton, M., Takahashi, K. & Held, I. M. J. Clim. 23, 2333–2344 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. 8

    Armour, K. C., Bitz, C. M. & Roe, G. H. J. Clim. 26, 4518–4534 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. 9

    Rose, B. E. J. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 1071–1078 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. 10

    Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M. & Webb, M. J. J. Clim. 28, 1630–1648 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. 11

    Gregory, J. M. & Andrews, T. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 3911–3920 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kyle C. Armour.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Armour, K. Climate sensitivity on the rise. Nature Clim Change 6, 896–897 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3079

Download citation

Further reading

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing