Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Mapping the climate change challenge

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 663–668 (2016)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Discussions on a long-term global goal to limit climate change, in the form of an upper limit to warming, were only partially resolved at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations in Paris, 2015. Such a political agreement must be informed by scientific knowledge. One way to communicate the costs and benefits of policies is through a mapping that systematically explores the consequences of different choices. Such a multi-disciplinary effort based on the analysis of a set of scenarios helped structure the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report. This Perspective summarizes this approach, reviews its strengths and limitations, and discusses how decision-makers can use its results in practice. It also identifies research needs that can facilitate integrated analysis of climate change and help better inform policy-makers and the public.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Get just this article for as long as you need it

$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: The mapping of the relationship between risks from climate change, temperature change, cumulative CO2 emissions, and annual GHG emissions changes by 2050 and 2100.

References

  1. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report (eds Pachauri, R. K. & Meyer, L. A.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

  2. Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedláček, J. & Fischer, E. M. A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target. Nature Geosci. 9, 13–18 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Edenhofer, O. & Minx, J. Mapmakers and navigators, facts and values. Science 345, 37–38 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects (eds Field, C. B. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

  5. IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

  6. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

  7. Clark, P. U. et al. Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Clim. Change 6, 360–369 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Rogelj, J. et al. Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C. Nature Clim. Change 5, 519–527 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Ha-Duong, M., Grubb, M. J. & Hourcade, J.-C. Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2-emission abatement. Nature 390, 270–273 (1997).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Lempert, R. J. & Schlesinger, M. E. Robust strategies for abating climate change. Climatic Change 45, 387–401 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Yohe, G., Andronova, N. & Schlesinger, M. To hedge or not against an uncertain climate future? Science 306, 416–417 (2004).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Clarke, L. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) Ch. 6 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

    Google Scholar 

  13. van Vuuren, D. P. & Riahi, K. The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets. Climatic Change 104, 793–801 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Smith, P. et al. Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions. Nature Clim. Change 6, 42–50 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Williamson, P. Emissions reduction: scrutinize CO2 removal methods. Nature 530, 153–155 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Fawcett, A. A. et al. Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change? Science 350, 1168–1169 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Otto, F. E. L., Frame, D. J., Otto, A. & Allen, M. R. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy. Nature Clim. Change 5, 917–920 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Kriegler, E. et al. Introduction to the AMPERE model intercomparison studies on the economics of climate stabilization. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 90, 1–7 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Luderer, G. et al. Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 34033 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Rogelj, J., McCollum, D. L., O'Neill, B. C. & Riahi, K. 2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C. Nature Clim. Change 3, 405–412 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. von Stechow, C., Minx, J. C. & Riahi, K. 2 °C and the sustainable development goals: united they stand, divided they fall? Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 034022 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Guivarch, C. & Hallegatte, S. 2C or not 2C? Glob. Environ. Change 23, 179–192 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Pfister, P. L. & Stocker, T. F. Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 14010 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Stocker, T. F. The closing door of climate targets. Science 339, 280–282 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Rogelj, J. et al. Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 16325–16330 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. van Vuuren, D. P., Weyant, J. & de la Chesnaye, F. Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing. Energ. Econ. 28, 102–120 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Lenton, T. M. Environmental tipping points. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 38, 1–29 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Stocker, T. F. & Schmittner, A. Influence of CO2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Nature 388, 862–865 (1997).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Steinacher, M., Joos, F. & Stocker, T. F. Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets. Nature 499, 197–201 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  30. McCollum, D. L. et al. Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges. Climatic Change 119, 479–494 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. von Stechow, C. et al. Integrating global climate change mitigation goals with other sustainability objectives: a synthesis. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 40, 363–394 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Hallegatte, S. et al. Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty (World Bank, 2016).

    Google Scholar 

  33. O'Neill, B. C. et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change 122, 387–400 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Vuuren, D. P. van. et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change 122, 373–386 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This paper benefited from many discussions with all the authors of the AR5 Synthesis Report of the IPCC, many authors from the three Working Groups, and members from the government delegations during the approval plenary in Copenhagen, 2014. Marianne Fay, Jan Fuglestvedt and Brian O'Neill provided useful comment on previous versions of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. The World Bank, Climate Change Policy Team, 1818 H Street NW, 20433, Washington, DC, USA

    Stephane Hallegatte

  2. Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria

    Joeri Rogelj & Keywan Riahi

  3. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland

    Joeri Rogelj & Reto Knutti

  4. Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK

    Myles Allen

  5. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK

    Myles Allen

  6. Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, 20740, Maryland, USA

    Leon Clarke

  7. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany

    Ottmar Edenhofer & Jan Minx

  8. Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, 10623, Germany

    Ottmar Edenhofer

  9. Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12, Berlin, 10829, Germany

    Ottmar Edenhofer & Jan Minx

  10. Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, 94305, California, USA

    Christopher B. Field

  11. Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, 94305, California, USA

    Christopher B. Field, Katharine J. Mach & Michael Mastrandrea

  12. College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK

    Pierre Friedlingstein

  13. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands

    Line van Kesteren & Detlef P. van Vuuren

  14. Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, Bern, 3012, Switzerland

    Adrien Michel, Gian-Kasper Plattner & Thomas F. Stocker

  15. Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Falkenplatz 16, Bern, 3012, Switzerland

    Adrien Michel & Thomas F. Stocker

  16. Hertie School of Governance, Friedrichstrasse 189, Berlin, 10117, Germany

    Jan Minx

  17. Department of Geosciences and the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, 08544, New Jersey, USA

    Michael Oppenheimer

  18. Graz University of Technology, Inffeldgasse, Graz, A-8010, Austria

    Keywan Riahi

  19. Climate Analytics GmbH, Friedrichstrasse 231, Haus B, Berlin, 10969, Germany

    Michiel Schaeffer

  20. Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, PO Box 47, Wageningen, 6700 AA, The Netherlands

    Michiel Schaeffer

  21. Utrecht University, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren

  22. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland

    Gian-Kasper Plattner

Authors
  1. Stephane Hallegatte
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Joeri Rogelj
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Myles Allen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Leon Clarke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Ottmar Edenhofer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Christopher B. Field
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Pierre Friedlingstein
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Line van Kesteren
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Reto Knutti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Katharine J. Mach
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. Michael Mastrandrea
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. Adrien Michel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. Jan Minx
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  14. Michael Oppenheimer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  15. Gian-Kasper Plattner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  16. Keywan Riahi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  17. Michiel Schaeffer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  18. Thomas F. Stocker
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  19. Detlef P. van Vuuren
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the assessment of the literature, the design of the figure and concepts and the writing of the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Stephane Hallegatte.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hallegatte, S., Rogelj, J., Allen, M. et al. Mapping the climate change challenge. Nature Clim Change 6, 663–668 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3057

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3057

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing