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Fossil fuels in a trillion tonne world

Abstract

The useful energy services and energy density value of fossil carbon fuels could be retained for longer timescales into the future if their combustion is balanced by CO2 recapture and storage. We assess the global balance between fossil carbon supply and the sufficiency (size) and capability (technology, security) of candidate carbon stores. A hierarchy of value for extraction-to-storage pairings is proposed, which is augmented by classification of CO2 containment as temporary (<1,000 yr) or permanent (>100,000 yr). Using temporary stores is inefficient and defers an intergenerational problem. Permanent storage capacity is adequate to technically match current fossil fuel reserves. However, rates of storage creation cannot balance current and expected rates of fossil fuel extraction and CO2 consequences. Extraction of conventional natural gas is uniquely holistic because it creates the capacity to re-inject an equivalent tonnage of carbon for storage into the same reservoir and can re-use gas-extraction infrastructure for storage. By contrast, balancing the extraction of coal, oil, biomass and unconventional fossil fuels requires the engineering and validation of additional carbon storage. Such storage is, so far, unproven in sufficiency.

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Figure 1: Sizes of fossil carbon supply (reserves and resources) and potential carbon stores divided between temporary (≤1,000 yr) and permanent (geological timescales ≥ 100,000 yr) in Gt CO2.

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Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

V.S. was the lead author. V.S., R.S.H., S.F.B.T. and A.O conceived the study and contributed to the text.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Vivian Scott.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Table 1

Estimated global fossil fuel reserves, resources and CO2 storage capacities in Gt CO2. (PDF 205 kb)

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Scott, V., Haszeldine, R., Tett, S. et al. Fossil fuels in a trillion tonne world. Nature Clim Change 5, 419–423 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2578

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