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Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

Abstract

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution1 and future trends of local populations2,3, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort4. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies5 by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model6,7 with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics8, global analyses are critical for conservation9. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

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Figure 1: Annual mean change of sea ice concentrations (SIC) between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and conservation status of emperor penguin colonies by 2100.
Figure 2: Projected population dynamics of emperor penguin colonies through to 2100.
Figure 3: Probability of quasi-extinction according to colony latitude.
Figure 4: Global number of breeding pairs of emperor penguins from 2009 to 2100.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge Institute Paul Emile Victor (Programme IPEV 109) and Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises for TA penguin data and the modelling groups Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for sea ice data. S.J. acknowledges support from CIRES Visiting fellowships, WHOI Unrestricted funds, the Grayce B. Kerr Fund and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists and H.C. acknowledges support from NSF Grant DEB-1145017, the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and ERC Advanced Grant 322989. We acknowledge D. Besson and K. Delord for TA penguin data management, P. Trathan and P. Fretwell for making satellite population counts available for earlier analysis and D. Ainley, L. Desvilettes and J. Garnier for fruitful discussions.

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Contributions

This research was designed and coordinated by S.J., M.H., M.S., H.W. and H.C. Analyses were performed and coordinated by S.J. with the support of H.C. (demographic analysis), M.H. (climate models analysis), J.S. and M.S. (sea ice observations), C.B. and H.W. (emperor penguin observations). S.J. and H.C. contributed new analytic tools. Figures were created by S.J. (emperor penguin projections) and M.H. (sea ice maps). S.J., M.H. and H.C. wrote the paper. J.S., M.S., C.B. and H.W. contributed equally to the study. All authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Julienne Stroeve, Mark Serreze, Christophe Barbraud or Henri Weimerskirch.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Jenouvrier, S., Holland, M., Stroeve, J. et al. Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change. Nature Clim Change 4, 715–718 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2280

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