Arctic sea ice is decreasing, and with the greater access for shipping comes increased interest in the region. At present, model projections look at the whole region, and there is an emerging need for regional sea-ice forecasts for scientists, planners of all levels and other stakeholders.
Tracy Rogers, of the International Arctic Research Center and Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, USA, and colleagues combine observational data and model simulations in an effort to provide the information needed to address user requirements. Thirteen models are evaluated on hindcast performance and the best are used for projections. Rogers et al. evaluate regional and seasonal sea-ice trends, identify drivers and project future conditions.
Their results project ice cover to be reduced over key shipping routes by 2100, with access extending by one to three months annually over current conditions.
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Wake, B. Arctic marine access. Nature Clim Change 3, 310 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1872
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1872
