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The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States

Nature Climate Change volume 3, pages 497501 (2013) | Download Citation

Abstract

Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States1 and elsewhere2 have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30 °C (or extreme degree days (EDD)), and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Here we show that the process-based Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is able to reproduce both of these relationships in the Midwestern United States and provide insight into underlying mechanisms. The predominant effects of EDD in APSIM are associated with increased vapour pressure deficit, which contributes to water stress in two ways: by increasing demand for soil water to sustain a given rate of carbon assimilation, and by reducing future supply of soil water by raising transpiration rates. APSIM computes daily water stress as the ratio of water supply to demand, and during the critical month of July this ratio is three times more responsive to 2 °C warming than to a 20% precipitation reduction. The results suggest a relatively minor role for direct heat stress on reproductive organs at present temperatures in this region. Effects of elevated CO2 on transpiration efficiency should reduce yield sensitivity to EDD in the coming decades, but at most by 25%.

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Acknowledgements

We thank J. Jones and M. Burke for helpful comments. D.B.L., M.J.R. and W.S. were supported by NSF grant SES-0962625, and D.B.L. also by NOAA grant NA11OAR4310095. G.L.H. and G.M. were supported by grant LP100100495 from the Australian Research Council.

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Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA

    • David B. Lobell
  2. The University of Queensland, Queensland Alliance For Agriculture and Food Innovation, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia

    • Graeme L. Hammer
  3. Queensland Department of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland 4350, Australia

    • Greg McLean
  4. Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Johnston, Iowa 50131, USA

    • Carlos Messina
  5. Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA

    • Michael J. Roberts
  6. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA

    • Wolfram Schlenker

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Contributions

D.B.L. and G.L.H. conceived the study, and all authors contributed to analysis and writing the paper.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to David B. Lobell.

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https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1832

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