Abstract
Reliable national statistics are fundamental for climate change science as well as for global negotiations about future emission targets and the allocation of responsibilities. China, the world’s top CO2 emitter1,2, has frequently been questioned about its data transparency and accuracy of energy and emission statistics 3,4,5,6,7. China implemented a top-down statistical system where energy statistics are compiled under the aegis of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) at the central government level, which oversees and coordinates the corresponding statistical departments at provincial and county levels8. The NBS publishes annually both national and provincial energy statistics. We compile the CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces for the period 1997–2010. However, CO2 emissions calculated on the basis of the two publicly available official energy data sets differ by 1.4 gigatonnes for 2010. The figure is equivalent to Japan’s annual CO2 emissions, the world’s fourth largest emitter, with 5% of the global total. Differences in reported coal consumption in coal washing and manufacturing are the main contributors to the discrepancy in official energy statistics. This paper presents an initial step to share and validate data and discuss methodologies in full transparency towards better energy and emission data for China.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
$209.00 per year
only $17.42 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
Change history
14 June 2012
In the version of this Letter originally published online, the affiliation for Dabo Guan, Zhu Liu and Yong Geng was incorrect. This has been corrected in all versions of the Letter.
References
Guan, D., Peters, G. P., Weber, C. L. & Hubacek, K. Journey to world top emitter—an analysis of the driving forces of China’s recent emissions surge. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L04709 (2009).
Peters, G. P. et al. Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Nature Clim. Change 2, 2–4 (2012).
Liu, J. & Yang, H. China fights against statistical corruption. Science 325, 675–676 (2009).
Peters, G., Webber, C., Guan, D. & Hubacek, K. China’s growing CO2 emissions—A race between lifestyle changes and efficiency gains. Environ. Sci. Technol. 41, 5939–5944 (2007).
Sinton, J. E. Accuracy and reliability of China’s energy statistics. China Econom. Rev. 12, 372–383 (2001).
Sinton, J. E. & Fridley, D. G. What goes up: Recent trends in China’s energy consumption. Energ. Policy 28, 671–687 (2000).
Marland, G. Uncertainties in accounting for CO2 from fossil fuels. J. Industr. Ecol. 12, 136–139 (2008).
Holz, C. A. China’s statistical system in transition: Challenges, data problems, and institutional innovations. Rev. Income Wealth 50, 381–409 (2004).
National Bureau of Statistics China Energy Statistical Yearbook (Various Years) (Department of Industry and Transport Statistics, Energy Bureau National Development Reform Commission, Eds, China Statistics Press, 1995–2011).
IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2006).
Aden, N. Initial Assessment of NBS Energy Data Revisions (Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, China Energy Group, 2010).
Wu, L., Kaneko, S. & Matsuoka, S. Driving forces behind the stagnancy of China’s energy-related CO2 emissions from 1996 to 1999: The relative importance of structural change, intensity change and scale change. Energ. Policy 33, 319–335 (2005).
Streets, D. G. et al. Recent reductions in china’s greenhouse gas emissions. Science 294, 1835–1837 (2001).
Wu, H. C. The Chinese GDP growth rate puzzle: How fast has the chinese economy grown? Asian Econom. Paper 6, 1–23 (2007).
Price, L., Wang, X. & Yun, J. China’s Top-1000 Energy-Consuming Enterprises Program: Reducing Energy Consumption of the 1000 Largest Industrial Enterprises in China (Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2008).
China Coal Information Institute China Coal Industry Yearbook 2009 (Coal Industry Press, 2011).
Price, L. et al. Energy use and carbon dioxide emissions from steel production in China. Energy 27, 429–446 (2002).
NDRC Overview of the 11th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. (National Development and Reform Commission, 2006).
Geng, Y. Eco-indicators: Improve China’s sustainability targets. Nature 477, 162 (2011).
Akimoto, H., Ohara, T., Kurokawa, J. & Horii, N. Verification of energy consumption in China during 1996–2003 by using satellite observational data. Atmos. Environ. 40, 7663–7667 (2006).
Jiao, L. & Stone, R. China looks to balance its carbon books. Science 334, 886–887 (2011).
Guan, D. & Hubacek, K. China can offer domestic emission cap-and-trade in post 2012. Environ. Sci. Technol. 44, 5327 (2010).
Fridley, D., Zheng, N. & Qin, Y. Inventory of China’s Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in 2008 (Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, China Energy Group, 2011).
National Bureau of Statistics China Statistical Yearbook 2009 (China Statistics Press, 2010).
Peters, G. P., Weber, C. & Liu, J. Construction of Chinese Energy and Emissions Inventory IndEcol Report 4/2006 (Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2006).
Guan, D., Hubacek, K., Weber, C. L., Peters, G. P. & Reiner, D. M. The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030. Glob. Environ. Change 18, 626–634 (2008).
Minx, J. C. et al. A Carbonizing Dragon: China’s fast growing CO2 emissions revisited. Environ. Sci. Technol. 45, 9144–9153 (2011).
Weber, C. L., Peters,, Glen, P., Guan, D. & Hubacek, K. The contribution of chinese exports to climate change. Energ. Policy 36, 3572–3577 (2008).
Guan, D. & Barker, T. S. Low carbon development in the least developed region: A case study of Guangyuan, Sichuan province, southwest China. Nat. Hazards 62, 243–254 (2012).
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (71033004), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2008-318) and the Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAJ06B01).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
D.G. and Z.L. designed the research; Z.L., S.L. and D.G. compiled the data; D.G. and Z.L. performed initial analysis; all authors contributed to the results’ interpretations and writing.
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
Supplementary information
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Guan, D., Liu, Z., Geng, Y. et al. The gigatonne gap in China’s carbon dioxide inventories. Nature Clim Change 2, 672–675 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1560
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1560
This article is cited by
-
Extension of Japan’s Prefectural Emission Accounting and Enrichment of Socioeconomic Data from 1990 to 2020
Scientific Data (2024)
-
The trajectory of carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks at the provincial level in China
Scientific Reports (2024)
-
Seeing carbon dioxide emissions through the trees
Nature Climate Change (2023)
-
Greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. crude oil pipeline accidents: 1968 to 2020
Scientific Data (2023)
-
Air quality and health benefits of increasing carbon mitigation tech-innovation in China
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023)