Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains

Nature Climate Change volume 2, pages 125–131 (2012)Cite this article

Abstract

The effect of a warming climate on hailstorm frequency and intensity is largely unknown. Global climate models have too coarse resolution to simulate hailstorms explicitly; thus it is unclear if a warmer climate will change hailstorm frequency and intensity, and if so, whether such events will become more likely through intensified thunderstorms or less likely owing to overall warmer conditions. Here we investigate hail generation and maintenance for warm-season extreme precipitation events in Colorado, USA, for both present-day and projected future climates using high-resolution model simulations capable of resolving hailstorms. Most simulations indicate a near-elimination of hail at the surface in future simulations for this region, despite more intense future storms and significantly larger amounts of hail generated in-cloud. An increase in the height of the environmental melting level due to climate warming is found to be the primary reason for the disappearance of surface hail, as the warmer atmosphere increases the melting of frozen precipitation. A decrease in future surface hail at high-elevation locations may imply potential changes in both hail damage and flood risk.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: A comparison of precipitation and hail/graupel accumulation for PAST and FUT simulations.
Figure 2: A comparison of hail throughout the full atmospheric column.
Figure 3: A comparison of graupel/hail amount by vertical level in PAST and FUT simulations.
Figure 4
Figure 5: A comparison of precipitation, hail/graupel and surface runoff relative to elevation.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Doesken, N. J. Hail, hail, hail! The summertime hazard of eastern Colorado. Colorado Climate Publication 17 (Special Feature Section, 1994).

  2. Changnon, S. A. & Changnon, D. Long-term fluctuations in hail incidences in the United States. J. Clim. 13, 658–664 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Changnon, S. A., Changnon, D. & Hilberg, S. D. Hailstorms Across the Nation: An Atlas About Hail and its Damages (Illinois State Water Survey, ISWS CR 2009-12, 2009).

  4. McKee, T. B. & Doesken, N. J. Colorado Extreme Storm Precipitation Data Study Climatology Report 97-1 (Colorado State Univ. Dept Atmospheric Science, 1997).

  5. Cotton, W. R., McAnelly, R. L. & Ashby, T. Development of New Methodologies for Determining Extreme Rainfall: Final Report for Contract ENC #C154213–State of Colorado (Dept Natural Resources, Dept Atmospheric Science, Colorado State Univ. 2003).

  6. Jarrett, R. D. in What We Have Learned Since the Big Thompson Flood Vol. 16 (ed. Gruntfest, E. C.) 203–212 (Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center, Special Publication, 1987).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Jarrett, R. D. Paleohydrology techniques used to define the spatial occurrence of floods. Geomorphology 3, 181–195 (1990).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Jarrett, R. D. Kuo, C.Y. (ed.) in Engineering Hydrology-Proceedings of the Symposium Sponsored by the Hydraulics Division, July 25–30, 1993, San Francisco, CA 180–185 (ASCE, 1993).

  9. Grimm, M. M., Wohl, E. E. & Jarrett, R. D. Coarse-sediment distribution as evidence of an elevation limit for flash flooding, Bear Creek, Colorado. Geomorphology 14, 199–210 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Jarrett, R. D. & Tomlinson, E. M. Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential. Water Resour. Res. 36, 2957–2984 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Hansen, E. M., Fenn, D. D., Schreiner, L. C., Stodt, R. W. & Miller, J. F. Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates-United States between the Continental Divide and the 103rd Meridian Hydrometeorological Report No. 55A (National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, 1988).

  12. Rasmussen, R. M. & Heymsfield, A. J. Melting and shedding of graupel and hail: Part I. Model physics. J. Atmos. Sci. 44, 2754–2763 (1987).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Cifelli, R. et al. A new dual-polarization radar rainfall algorithm: Application in Colorado precipitation events.. J. Atmos. Oceanic. Technol. 28, 352–364 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Willis, P. T. & Heymsfield, A. J. Structure of the melting layer in mesoscale convective system stratiform precipitation. J. Atmos. Sci. 46, 2008–2025 (1989).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Phillips, V. T. J., Pokrovsky, A. & Khain, A. The influence of time-dependent melting on the dynamics and precipitation production in maritime and continental storm clouds. J. Atmos. Sci. 64, 338–359 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Gilmore, M. S., Straka, J. M. & Rasmussen, E. N. Precipitation uncertainty due to variations in precipitation particle parameters within a simple microphysics scheme. Mon. Weather Rev. 132, 2610–2627 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Morrison, H. et al. WMO international cloud modeling workshop. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90, 1683–1686 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Morrison, H. & Milbrandt, J. Comparison of two-moment bulk microphysics schemes in idealized supercell thunderstorm simulations. Mon. Weather Rev. 139, 1103–1130 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Niall, S. & Walsh, K. The impact of climate change on hailstorms in southeastern Australia. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1933–1952 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Dessens, J. Severe convective weather in the context of nighttime global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 1241–1244 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Willemse, S. A Statistical Analysis and Climatological Interpretation of Hailstorms in Switzerland Ph.D. thesis, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Doctor of Natural Science thesis dissertation No. 11137 (1995).

  22. McMaster, H. The potential impact of global warming on hailstorm losses to winter cereal crops in NSW. Climatic Change 43, 455–479 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Xie, B., Zhang, Q. & Wang, Y. Trends in hail in China during 1960–2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L13801 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Mearns, L. O. et al. A regional climate change assessment program for North America. Eos 90, 311–312 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Skamarock, W. C. et al. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2 NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR (2007).

  26. Barnett, D. N., Brown, S. J., Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H. & Webb, M. J. Quantifying uncertainty in changes in extreme event frequency in response to doubled CO2 using a large ensemble of GCM simulations. Clim. Dynam. 26 (2006).

  27. Marsh, P. T., Brooks, H. E. & Karoly, D. J. Preliminary investigation into the severe thunderstorm environment of Europe simulated by the Community Climate System Model 3. Atmos. Res. 93, 607–618 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Van Klooster, S. L. & Roebber, P. J. Surface-based convective potential in the contiguous United States in a business-as-usual future climate. J. Clim. 22, 3317–3330 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Xie, B. & Zhang, Q. Observed characteristics of hail size in four regions in China during 1980–2005. J. Clim. 23, 4973–4982 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Downton, M., Cullen, H., Morss, R., Wilhelmi, O. & Rajagopalan, B. Proc. 17th Conference on Hydrology, AMS Annual Meeting, Long Beach, CA (American Meteorological Society, 2003).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Mearns, L. O. et al. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dataset (National Center for Atmospheric Research Earth System Grid data portal, 2007); data downloaded from http://www.earthsystemgrid.org/browse/viewProject.htm?projectId=ff3949c8-2008-45c8-8e27-5834f54be50f.

  32. http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/about/timeslices.html.

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise (PACE) Fellowship Program, administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, jointly funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Bureau of Reclamation, and the Western Water Assessment. We acknowledge NCAR and the National Science Foundation (NSF) for the availability of the WRF model and NCL software, and Unidata for the IDV package. We also wish to thank the NARCCAP project for providing the RCM data used in this paper. NARCCAP is funded by the NSF, the US Department of Energy (DoE), NOAA, and the US Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development (EPA). Gratitude is extended to NOAA ESRL’s Jet Supercomputing system for providing computer resources for this work.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, (Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise Fellowship Program/NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and US Bureau of Reclamation), Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA

    Kelly Mahoney

  2. NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA

    Michael A. Alexander

  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA

    Gregory Thompson

  4. NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA

    Joseph J. Barsugli

  5. NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, and CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA

    James D. Scott

Authors
  1. Kelly Mahoney
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Michael A. Alexander
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Gregory Thompson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Joseph J. Barsugli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. James D. Scott
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

K.M. carried out the model simulations and led the writing of the paper. M.A.A. provided project planning and leadership, as well as climate modelling expertise. G.T. contributed updated model microphysics code and provided microphysics parameterization counsel. J.J.B. provided project planning and counsel, and J.D.S. provided model initial condition files to be used for the high-resolution simulations, as well as reanalysis-based analyses, model validation, and graphics support. All contributed to editing the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kelly Mahoney.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Mahoney, K., Alexander, M., Thompson, G. et al. Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains. Nature Clim Change 2, 125–131 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1344

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1344

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing