Nature 479, 94–97 (2011)

Credit: © NASA/JPL/QUIKSCAT SCIENCE TEAM

The development of tropical storms in the Arabian Sea — associated with low-pressure cyclonic airflow — is limited by the interaction of winds at different heights, an effect known as vertical wind shear. The region is strongly influenced by monsoonal circulation patterns, which exhibit strong vertical shear and inhibit cyclone development. However, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols (fine particles suspended in the atmosphere) are thought to have weakened this monsoonal circulation. As such, it seemed plausible that the aerosol-driven circulation modification also affects the intensity of Arabian Sea tropical cyclones.

Amato Evan, of the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, USA, and co-workers investigated the intensity of the pre-monsoon tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea during the period 1979–2010.

Based on a combination of modelling and observational data, they report an increase in pre-monsoon intensity and demonstrate that this is concurrent with a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate aerosol emissions.