J. Clim. 24, 3257–3271 (2011)

Credit: © AP/PRESS ASSOCIATION IMAGES

An analysis shows that over the past 60 years severe droughts in China were frequent and grew increasingly common, even though many were not widely reported.

Aihui Wang, of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Beijing, China, and her colleagues looked at changing soil moisture levels across the country between 1950 and 2006 using four models. After checking that the models showed only limited variation in their outputs, they combined the findings to generate a geographic map of moisture variations for the period.

Overall, 37% of China's area became drier, while 22% got wetter. Northern and central regions experienced the most severe drying trends, according to the map, suggesting an increasing risk of agricultural failure in the future if the trend continues. Indeed, the winter drought that hit the northeast in 2008–2009 led to economic losses of $2.3 million and left more than 10 million people struggling with water shortages. The authors note that climate models predict that China's summer monsoon will become more intense everywhere, which should offset the macroscale drying trend.