Climate change might give unexpected help to conservationists by banishing stubborn invasive plants from some regions, say scientists. Ecological disturbances in the next century are widely expected to worsen invasions by foreign species, but the potential negative impacts of climate change on invaders have received little study.
Bethany Bradley of Princeton University in New Jersey and colleagues focused on five of the most problematic invasive plants in the western United States, sometimes called 'kudzus of the west'. They studied the species' climate envelopes — the temperature and rainfall levels where the plants now thrive — and used global climate models to project where these conditions would occur in 2100, given a moderate emissions scenario. Yellow starthistle and tamarisk are likely to expand their ranges with climate change. But spotted knapweed, cheatgrass and leafy spurge are expected to shift towards cooler regions, leaving only 0–19 per cent of the ecosystems they now occupy at high invasion risk in 2100.
Although invasive plants will threaten new areas, some native ecosystems left behind could be restored. The researchers note that wildlife managers might have to act quickly to find species able to survive in the altered climate, before new invaders turn up to occupy open niches.
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Barnett, A. Invaders retreat. Nature Clim Change 1, 29 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1038/climate.2009.15
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/climate.2009.15
