The world's major commercial fisheries could shift their distribution within decades if greenhouse gas emissions continue to soar. While high-latitude regions are expected to benefit from anticipated changes in ocean fisheries, the tropics are likely to suffer a decline in this much-needed food source, finds a new study.
A team of researchers led by William Cheung of the University of East Anglia, UK, estimated probable changes in the potential catch of 1,066 commercially exploited marine species, ranging from krill to sharks. Using an approach known as the bioclimatic envelope model to identify species' environmental preferences, the team analysed changes in the distribution of these fisheries up to the year 2055, relative to a 2005 baseline, in a low- and in a high-emissions world. Under the most extreme scenario, they found that catch potential would increase by an average of 30–70 per cent at high latitudes and decrease up to 40 per cent in the tropics. If these projections materialize, fishing nations in the Indo-Pacific region will fare badly, as will fisheries in semi-enclosed seas such as the Red Sea.
The authors note they were unable to account for some key variables that could influence fisheries, such as ocean acidification.
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Heffernan, O. Ocean species shift. Nature Clim Change 1, 124 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1038/climate.2009.104
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/climate.2009.104
