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Hujoel PP, Bergström J et al. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2003; 31: 1–6

Using data from the large American NHANES III study, prevalence and incidence of advanced periodontitis were estimated for subjects aged 30–40. Tooth loss in this group was minimal and therefore unlikely to bias estimates.

In 30–34-year-olds, prevalence of advanced periodontitis was 144%, and in 35–39-year-olds, 2.28%. Mortality risk for 35–39-year-olds was 0.00994. Incidence was estimated at 0.17% per year, giving a risk of 7% of developing advanced periodontitis between the ages of 30 and 75 years. In this age group, the risk for a nonsmoker was 3%, and for a smoker, 18%.

Smoking prevalence decreased from 1966 to 1998 by 8% in persons with no high school education, but by 43% in persons with college education. Incidence of periodontitis was closely related to smoking, education and gender. The authors estimate that elimination of smoking would cause a 68% decrease in advanced periodontitis.