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| Open AccessProgressive unanchoring of Antarctic ice shelves since 1973
Pinning-point changes over three epochs spanning the periods 1973–1989, 1989–2000 and 2000−2022 were measured, and by proxy the changes to ice-shelf thickness back to 1973–1989 were inferred.
- Bertie W. J. Miles
- & Robert G. Bingham
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Article |
Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022
Analysis of more than 236,000 observations of glacier terminus positions shows that accelerated calving reduced the ice area of Greenland by about 5,000 km2 since 1985, producing over 1,000 Gt of freshwater that could influence ocean salinity and circulation.
- Chad A. Greene
- , Alex S. Gardner
- & Joshua K. Cuzzone
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss
Snowpack reconstructions for major river basins in the Northern Hemisphere reveal that the snowpack has declined in almost half of the basins, with roughly one-third of the declines attributable to human-induced warming.
- Alexander R. Gottlieb
- & Justin S. Mankin
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Article
| Open AccessOvershooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet
Simulations using two state-of-the-art ice-sheet models show that abrupt melting of the Greenland ice sheet following overshooting of the global mean temperature critical threshold can be mitigated by subsequent cooling to below 1.5 °C.
- Nils Bochow
- , Anna Poltronieri
- & Niklas Boers
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Article |
Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat
By 2100, the decline of all glaciers outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets will produce new terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems, posing both challenges and opportunities for conservation.
- J. B. Bosson
- , M. Huss
- & F. Arthaud
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Bipolar impact and phasing of Heinrich-type climate variability
Ice-core data show that extreme iceberg discharge events in the North Atlantic had no detectable impact on Greenland temperatures but are synchronous with abrupt acceleration of Antarctic warming.
- Kaden C. Martin
- , Christo Buizert
- & Todd A. Sowers
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Article |
Rapid, buoyancy-driven ice-sheet retreat of hundreds of metres per day
Analysis of more than 7,600 corrugation ridges on the Norwegian continental shelf shows that rapid grounding-line retreat of several hundred metres per day occurred across low-gradient ice-sheet beds during the last deglaciation.
- Christine L. Batchelor
- , Frazer D. W. Christie
- & Julian A. Dowdeswell
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Article
| Open AccessRegime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness
A simple model describes the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening, shows how reduced residence time affects changes in ice thickness and highlights the enduring impact of climate change on the Arctic Ocean.
- Hiroshi Sumata
- , Laura de Steur
- & Sebastian Gerland
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Article
| Open AccessSuppressed basal melting in the eastern Thwaites Glacier grounding zone
Despite observations from a hot-water-drilled access hole showing warm ocean waters beneath Thwaites Glacier Eastern Ice Shelf, the basal melt rate is strongly suppressed due to the low current speeds and strong density stratification.
- Peter E. D. Davis
- , Keith W. Nicholls
- & Keith Makinson
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Article
| Open AccessHeterogeneous melting near the Thwaites Glacier grounding line
Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf observations from a new underwater vehicle show that high melt rates occur where ice is sharply sloped at the ocean interface, with lower melt where the ice is comparatively flat.
- B. E. Schmidt
- , P. Washam
- & K. Makinson
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Article
| Open AccessModern temperatures in central–north Greenland warmest in past millennium
A reconstruction of temperatures in central and north Greenland from ad 1000 to 2011 shows that that the final decade of this period was on average 1.5 ± 0.4 °C warmer compared to pre-industrial temperatures, accompanied by increased meltwater run-off.
- M. Hörhold
- , T. Münch
- & T. Laepple
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Article
| Open AccessSeasonal temperatures in West Antarctica during the Holocene
Analysis of a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core reveals a dominant role for annual maximum insolation in determining West Antarctic summer temperature during the Holocene.
- Tyler R. Jones
- , Kurt M. Cuffey
- & James W. C. White
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Article
| Open AccessExtensive inland thinning and speed-up of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
Analysis of global navigation satellite system observations and satellite data shows that frontal changes in 2012 of the North-East Greenland Ice Stream led to speed-up and thinning at least 200 km inland.
- Shfaqat A. Khan
- , Youngmin Choi
- & Anders A. Bjørk
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Article |
A year-round satellite sea-ice thickness record from CryoSat-2
Deep learning and numerical simulations of CryoSat-2 radar altimeter data are used to generate a pan-Arctic sea-ice thickness dataset for the Arctic melt period.
- Jack C. Landy
- , Geoffrey J. Dawson
- & Yevgeny Aksenov
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Review Article |
Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change
Analysis of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet response to past warm periods and current observations of change highlight the importance of satisfying the Paris Climate Agreement to avoid a multi-metre contribution to sea level over the next few centuries.
- Chris R. Stokes
- , Nerilie J. Abram
- & Pippa L. Whitehouse
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Article |
Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning
Data from multiple satellite sensors show that Antarctica lost almost 37,000 km2 of ice-shelf area from 1997 to 2021, and that calving losses are as important as ice-shelf thinning.
- Chad A. Greene
- , Alex S. Gardner
- & Alexander D. Fraser
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Threshold response to melt drives large-scale bed weakening in Greenland
An analysis of basal-friction variability across western Greenland shows melt forcing influences bed strength in opposite ways in northern and southern Greenland, establishing melt has an important role in ice-sheet evolution that is mainly dictated by whether a region is land or marine terminating.
- Nathan Maier
- , Florent Gimbert
- & Fabien Gillet-Chaulet
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Matters Arising |
Reply to: No freshwater-filled glacial Arctic Ocean
- Walter Geibert
- , Jens Matthiessen
- & Ruediger Stein
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Article |
Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100
Historical photographs, modern observations, and a simple space-for-time substitution approach predict that glacier mass loss from Svalbard is poised to double over the twenty-first century.
- Emily C. Geyman
- , Ward J. J. van Pelt
- & Jack Kohler
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Article |
A large West Antarctic Ice Sheet explains early Neogene sea-level amplitude
Variations in Miocene sea level can be explained by a large marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
- J. W. Marschalek
- , L. Zurli
- & Zhifang Xiong
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Matters Arising |
Non-trivial role of internal climate feedback on interglacial temperature evolution
- Xu Zhang
- & Fahu Chen
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Article |
The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica
An observationally calibrated ice sheet–shelf model suggests that global warming of 3 °C will trigger rapid Antarctic ice loss, contributing about 0.5 cm per year of sea-level rise by 2100.
- Robert M. DeConto
- , David Pollard
- & Andrea Dutton
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Article |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise
Efficient statistical emulation of melting land ice under various climate scenarios to 2100 indicates a contribution from melting land ice to sea level increase of at least 13 centimetres sea level equivalent.
- Tamsin L. Edwards
- , Sophie Nowicki
- & Thomas Zwinger
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Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century
Analysis of satellite stereo imagery uncovers two decades of mass change for all of Earth’s glaciers, revealing accelerated glacier shrinkage and regionally contrasting changes consistent with decadal climate variability.
- Romain Hugonnet
- , Robert McNabb
- & Andreas Kääb
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Glacial episodes of a freshwater Arctic Ocean covered by a thick ice shelf
Unexpected intervals of low 230Th concentration in marine sediment cores are explained by considering that during at least two such periods, the Arctic Ocean and Nordic seas were composed entirely of fresh water and covered by a thick ice shelf.
- Walter Geibert
- , Jens Matthiessen
- & Ruediger Stein
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Article |
Antarctic ice dynamics amplified by Northern Hemisphere sea-level forcing
Changes in Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet size during ice-age cycles enhance the advance and retreat of the grounding line of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, owing to interhemispheric sea-level forcing.
- Natalya Gomez
- , Michael E. Weber
- & Holly K. Han
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Article |
Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century
Rates of ice-mass loss from southwestern Greenland this century will exceed the maximum rate over the past 12,000 years, and would not be the result of natural variation.
- Jason P. Briner
- , Joshua K. Cuzzone
- & Sophie Nowicki
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Article |
The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.
- Julius Garbe
- , Torsten Albrecht
- & Ricarda Winkelmann
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Article |
Vulnerability of Antarctica’s ice shelves to meltwater-driven fracture
Using a neural network trained on continent-wide data and a fracture model, the ice shelves in Antarctica that may be prone to hydrofracturing under further atmospheric warming are identified.
- Ching-Yao Lai
- , Jonathan Kingslake
- & J. Melchior van Wessem
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Article |
The causes of sea-level rise since 1900
Observed global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 is reconciled with estimates based on the contributing processes, revealing budget closure within uncertainties and showing ice-mass loss from glaciers as a dominant contributor.
- Thomas Frederikse
- , Felix Landerer
- & Yun-Hao Wu
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Article |
Ice retreat in Wilkes Basin of East Antarctica during a warm interglacial
Uranium isotopes in subglacial precipitates from the Wilkes Basin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet reveal ice retreat during a warm Pleistocene interglacial period about 400,000 years ago.
- T. Blackburn
- , G. H. Edwards
- & J. T. Babbe
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Article |
Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018
Applying a bias correction to a state-of-the-art dataset covering non-alpine regions of the Northern Hemisphere and to three other datasets yields a more constrained quantification of snow mass in March from 1980 to 2018.
- Jouni Pulliainen
- , Kari Luojus
- & Johannes Norberg
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Article |
Ice front blocking of ocean heat transport to an Antarctic ice shelf
The front of the Getz Ice Shelf in West Antarctica creates an abrupt topographic step that deflects ocean currents, suppressing 70% of the heat delivery to the ice sheet.
- A. K. Wåhlin
- , N. Steiger
- & S. Viboud
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Article |
Palaeoclimate evidence of vulnerable permafrost during times of low sea ice
A reconstruction of permafrost dynamics using speleothems from a Siberian cave indicates that Siberian permafrost is robust to warming when Arctic sea ice is present, but vulnerable when it is absent.
- A. Vaks
- , A. J. Mason
- & G. M. Henderson
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Article |
The past and future of global river ice
An analysis based on Landsat imagery shows that the extent of river ice has declined extensively over past decades and that this trend will continue under future global warming.
- Xiao Yang
- , Tamlin M. Pavelsky
- & George H. Allen
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Article |
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018
Three techniques for estimating mass losses from the Greenland Ice Sheet produce comparable results for the period 1992–2018 that approach the trajectory of the highest rates of sea-level rise projected by the IPCC.
- Andrew Shepherd
- , Erik Ivins
- & Jan Wuite
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Article |
Large hydropower and water-storage potential in future glacier-free basins
Glacierized regions that are projected to become ice-free in this century could provide substantial water storage and hydroelectric power, according to this worldwide theoretical assessment.
- Daniel Farinotti
- , Vanessa Round
- & Harry Zekollari
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Article |
Two-million-year-old snapshots of atmospheric gases from Antarctic ice
Analysis of two-million-year-old ice from Antarctica provides a direct comparison of atmospheric gas levels before and after the shift from glacial cycles of 100 thousand years to 40-thousand-year cycles around one million years ago.
- Yuzhen Yan
- , Michael L. Bender
- & John A. Higgins
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Letter |
The amplitude and origin of sea-level variability during the Pliocene epoch
Sea level varied by 13 ± 5 metres on average, but up to 25 metres, over glacial–interglacial cycles during the Pliocene epoch, due to partial collapses of Antarctic Ice Sheets.
- G. R. Grant
- , T. R. Naish
- & M. O. Patterson
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Letter |
Rapid expansion of Greenland’s low-permeability ice slabs
Observations and regional climate models show that the increasing coverage of ice slabs on the Greenland ice sheet could lead to a global sea-level rise of up to 74 millimetres by 2100.
- M. MacFerrin
- , H. Machguth
- & W. Abdalati
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Article |
Antarctic offshore polynyas linked to Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies
Measurements collected during recent polynya events in the Southern Ocean reveal that these sea ice openings formed as a result of weakened stratification and severe storms and were sustained by deep overturning.
- Ethan C. Campbell
- , Earle A. Wilson
- & Lynne D. Talley
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Article |
Asia’s shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress
Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia provide a uniquely drought-resilient source of water, supplying summer meltwater sufficient for the basic needs of around 200 million people.
- Hamish D. Pritchard
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Letter |
Industrial-era decline in subarctic Atlantic productivity
A continuous, multi-century record of subarctic Atlantic marine productivity shows that a marked decline in net primary productivity has occurred across the subarctic Atlantic basin over the past two centuries.
- Matthew B. Osman
- , Sarah B. Das
- & Eric S. Saltzman
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Letter |
Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016
The largest collection so far of glaciological and geodetic observations suggests that glaciers contributed about 27 millimetres to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016, at rates of ice loss that could see the disappearance of many glaciers this century.
- M. Zemp
- , M. Huss
- & J. G. Cogley
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Article |
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt
Increased meltwater from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will slow the Atlantic overturning circulation and warm the subsurface ocean around Antarctica, further increasing Antarctic ice loss.
- Nicholas R. Golledge
- , Elizabeth D. Keller
- & Tamsin L. Edwards
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Article |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability
By better quantifying uncertainties for marine ice-cliff instability, future Antarctic ice loss is predicted to be much lower than previously estimated.
- Tamsin L. Edwards
- , Mark A. Brandon
- & Andreas Wernecke
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Letter |
Greenland melt drives continuous export of methane from the ice-sheet bed
Subglacially produced methane of microbial origin is flushed to the ice margin of the Greenland ice sheet by meltwater, contributing to a previously unaccounted for methane flux to the atmosphere.
- Guillaume Lamarche-Gagnon
- , Jemma L. Wadham
- & Marek Stibal
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Letter |
Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming
Ice-core-derived melt records reveal that atmospheric warming has recently intensified Greenland ice-sheet surface melt and runoff to levels that are exceptional over at least the last 350 years.
- Luke D. Trusel
- , Sarah B. Das
- & Michiel R. van den Broeke
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Letter |
Abrupt ice-age shifts in southern westerly winds and Antarctic climate forced from the north
The position of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds responds immediately to abrupt North Atlantic climate events of the last ice age, with a spatially heterogeneous impact on Antarctic climate.
- Christo Buizert
- , Michael Sigl
- & Eric J. Steig