Commentary in 2011

Reluctance to deposit data is rife among researchers, despite broad agreement on the principle of data sharing. More and better information will reach hitherto empty archives, if professional support is given during data creation, not in a project's final phase.

Reconstructions of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 65 million years are heading towards consensus. It is time for systematic testing of the proxies, against measurements and against each other.

Accurate prediction of Earth's future warming hinges on our understanding of climate sensitivity. Palaeoclimatology will help solve the problem if the feedbacks included in palaeoclimate sensitivity are properly identified and reconstructions of past atmospheric CO₂ can be improved.

State-of-the-art climate models are largely untested against actual occurrences of abrupt change. It is a huge leap of faith to assume that simulations of the coming century with these models will provide reliable warning of sudden, catastrophic events.

The potential for earthquakes along the plate boundaries has been mapped with reasonable success. Our attention should now focus on the threat posed by unanticipated quakes located in the continental interiors.

Research into the biological threat of reduced ocean pH has yielded many insights over the past decade. Further progress requires a better understanding of how the interplay between ocean acidification and other anthropogenic stresses impacts marine biota.

Crops are at risk in a changing climate. Farmers in the developing world will be able to insure against harvest failure if robust insurance packages, based on a geophysical index rather than individual loss, become widely available.